Saturday, June 2, 2012

June box office preview

The Avengers sucked the air out of the box office in May with nearly $530 million but it will be interesting to see if the box office continues to perform softly in June. Besides The Avengers, May was ridden with strong disappointments. Dark Shadows performed softly for a Tim Burton movie with a $29 million opening and a total of $66 million so far. Battleship became the second Taylor Kitsch starred flop of the year with an opening of $25 million and a meager $49 million total. The Dictator also fell hard with a soft $45 million thus far. Evne MIB3 underwhelmed with a $69 million memorial day weekend. June has insane amounts of promise and it could definitely break the record held by June 2009. But that depends on if films with lots of promise like Snow White and the Huntsman and Prometheus flop. Here are my projections for the month of June.

1. Brave- $250 million

It's Pixar and it should do fantastic. Cars 2 was met with negative buzz and thus only made $190 million domestically. This film should be a rebound for the studios and be a strong hit.

2. Prometheus- $210 million

Prometheus is one of the most heavily hyped films of the summer and the film is already doing fantastic business overseas. The reviews have been good and there are so many things going for the film. The one question mark is whether the R rating will hurt the film's box office performance. If it was going to hurt it's ability to make money, I don't think Fox would have let that rating go by and I see this film being a huge hit.

3. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted- $205 million

Madagascar made $193 million. Madagascar 2 made $180 million. There is no reason that this threequel can't do better. It has received good reviews out of Cannes, has an addicting marketing campaign that is mostly about a zebra with an Afro and it also has a prime summer release date. Franchise fatigue could set in but with so few animated and family films this summer, I can't see this being a disappointment.

4. Snow White and the Huntsman- $150 million

I am a big believer in this film and its box office potential. This film is going to be a surprise hit and will make a good amount of money. I could be significantly off in my projections for this film. But I think that the film will make a lot more money than people think.

5. Rock of Ages- $135 million

This Tom Cruise musical has really limited wide appeal but it should bring in several different demographics. The film is one that would typically not be seen in summer but with a significant amount of stars, a good soundtrack, and the gimmick of getting to see Tom Cruise sing should bring in a good amount of people. In addition, the movie looks really fun. Expect a solid hit from this film.

In addition to those five films, I expect That's My Boy to gross $70 million, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter to gross $60 million, Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World to gross $45 million, Magic Mike to gross $65 million, Madea's Witness Protection to gross $30 million, and People Like Us to gross $25 million. Also, I think that Seth MacFarlane's Ted is going to be the sleeper hit of the summer with $80 million. June should see very strong box office returns and could break 2009's record June.

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