Sunday, July 15, 2012

Can 'The Dark Knight Rises' possibly beat 'The Avengers'?

I'm going to throw some numbers out. $18.7 million. $80.5 million. $207 million. $612 million (so far). $1.455 billion. Those are the numbers for The Avengers midnight showings, opening day, opening weekend, total domestic gross and total worldwide gross. Those are massive numbers and in any other year, The Avengers would be guaranteed to be the #1 film of the year. But not this year. This year also sees the release of possibly the most anticipated movie of all time, The Dark Knight Rises. Now, The Dark Knight Rises is big, but will it be 'Avengers' big? That's the question. It's time for five rounds. The Avengers vs. The Dark Knight Rises. Let's start with midnight grosses.

Round 1: Midnight Grosses

The Avengers grossed $18.7 million at midnights. While that is the highest total for a superhero movie, the record still belongs to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 with $42 million. The Dark Knight Rises won't even touch that record as that film was extremely front-loaded. But I do think that The Dark Knight Rises will have more midnight business than The Avengers. The reasons are that it is summertime now and kids that wanted to see The Avengers at midnight but couldn't because of school now have the chance to see The Dark Knight Rises at midnight. They are practically the same audience, despite what Marvel and DC fans say. The Dark Knight had the previous midnight record with $18.5 million and The Avengers barely edged it out. The Dark Knight Rises should blow past The Avengers.

The Avengers: $18.7 million

The Dark Knight Rises prediction: $25 million

WINNER: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES


Round 2: Opening Day

The Avengers opened with $80.5 million on its opening day which is the second-highest ever. I think that The Dark Knight Rises will be higher than that. It's simple. This is THE movie of the summer and people will rush out and see it. There have been no other action movies that have had broad appeal and that everybody wanted to see. No film that is not a kids movie has reached $200 million yet this summer besides The Avengers and despite the fact that The Amazing Spider-Man has made $176 million so far, The Dark Knight Rises is still the only mega-movie of the summer.

The Avengers: $80.5 million

The Dark Knight Rises prediction: $89 million

WINNER: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES


Round 3: Opening Weekend

So far, I think that The Dark Knight Rises midnight grosses and opening day will be bigger than the totals from The Avengers. But will the opening weekend be bigger as well. I think it will. Almost everybody went to see The Dark Knight when it came out in 2008 and I would say most people liked it or loved it. There is no reason that won't happen again. There are some different factors. There is no 3D. I get that. But, The Dark Knight Rises is an IMAX film and it's being marketed as a must-see in IMAX. Remember, those tickets cost more than 3D. I don't think Rises will destroy The Avengers record. But I think it will sneak by it.

The Avengers: $207 million

The Dark Knight Rises prediction: $215 million

WINNER: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES


Round 4: Total Domestic Gross

The Avengers has made $612 million in the US and Canada so far. That is good enough for third on the list of the highest grossing films ever. That is a very, very tough number to beat. But I think that The Dark Knight Rises has a chance. The Avengers had a second weekend of $103 million. I can easily see The Dark Knight Rises beating that. There is no competition. The Avengers held well even with Dark Shadows, a film that in my opinion has a different fanbase than The Watch, which is what Rises will be going up against. It's first challenge will come in its third weekend. That is when Total Recall is released. But even that won't be a challenge because it seems that there is no interest in that film at all. The first movie that I think will challenge The Dark Knight Rises is The Bourne Legacy on August 10. Another advantage is that The Dark Knight Rises is opening during the summer so it will have stronger weekly grosses than The Avengers. And if Rises is as good as everybody says, then it will have strong word-of-mouth and will be able to match the total of The Avengers.

The Avengers- $612 million

The Dark Knight Rises prediction- $665 million

WINNER: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

Round 5: Total Worldwide Gross

This is where The Avengers might win. The Dark Knight made $533 million domestic and $468 international. If Rises has that same international gross then it will make $1.133 Billion. But I think it will make more then that because audiences are kind to the final chapter of trilogies and that means they make more money. I'm not sure if Rises has a bigger international audience than Avengers but then again, most of Marvel's movies made nothing overseas and then The Avengers made a ton. We'll have to see.

The Avengers: $1.455 Billion

The Dark Knight Rises prediction: $1.3 Billion

WINNER: THE AVENGERS

Well, it looks like The Avengers will be the winner overseas, but The Dark Knight Rises will destroy the domestic box office. I will make a final prediction later in the week. But that's it for now.

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