Friday, November 2, 2012

Is 2015 going to be the biggest box office year ever?

Most years, there is one huge film in each season. This year, the big movie in Spring was The Hunger Games, the summer movie(s) were The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises and then there is The Hobbit during the Holiday season. But in 2015, there is three films set to premiere that blow away all four of those films. There is the final part of The Hunger Games with Mockingjay: Part 2 on November 20. Then there is The Avengers 2 on May 1, 2015. Those are two huge films in their own right but earlier this year, Warner Bros. put Justice League on their 2015 calender. And now, Disney's Star Wars: Episode VII will debut in summer 2015. Not to mention, Ant-Man, The Penguins of Madagascar, a new Peanuts film and a Pixar film that goes inside the mind. That sounds like a pretty good line-up for a huge year. And if James Cameron's Avatar sequel falls into the 2015 calender, which is likely, 2015 will be without a doubt the biggest year ever. Let's examine each of the three big films (Avatar 2 not included).


Sequels to the biggest films ever usually do pretty good. They don't always do quite as good as the original, mostly because they are not as good, but they always make money. The Avengers 2 will likely make $2 billion dollars. The original made $1.5 billion but sequels do better overseas. Plus, I think that goodwill from the other upcoming Marvel sequels will help this film (Iron Man 3, and Thor: The Dark World will both be good indicators of how big The Avengers 2 will be). And I think that Joss Whedon will deliver a good movie. The film will be huge domestically, but even bigger internationally. Expect a big one here.

DOMESTICALLY: $550 million
INTERNATIONALLY: $1.55 billion


Star Wars movies are always big. The original made around $500 million in the states and Episode I made more than that. There is a strong demand for a Star Wars movie (the last one was in 2005) and I think that it will surely make more than a billion. But I think that there will be more skeptics this time than there were when The Phantom Menace came out. Look for Episode VII to be the film event of the year but it won't make as much as The Avengers 2.

DOMESTICALLY: $490 million


The Justice League will be nowhere near as big as the other two films in 2015. That is because there is no build up. It is the opposite of the Marvel formula and it won't work as well. People will see it because it's Justice League but it won't come close to the grosses of the other recent superhero movies. That is unless the Man of Steel film works out.

DOMESTICALLY: $310 million
WORLDWIDE: $760 million

The other films that year I chose not to examine but I know that they will all be big in some way.

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