Sunday, March 3, 2013

Early Predictions for the 2013/2014 Oscars

I know, I know. We just got done with the Oscars. And you're tired of hearing about them. I know. But next year's race is just so dang awesome and packed with so many awesome films that I just had to get a head start on the race. I'm thinking that there could actually be ten films this year and I'm really excited about this slate. There will be a lot of players and there will be snubs but when the nominees are announced in January or February, here's who I think will be left standing. My predicted winners in bold.

And the nominees are......

BEST PICTURE

1. David O. Russell's Untitled Abscam Film
2. The Monuments Men
3. Captain Phillips
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. August: Osage County
6. Nebraska
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Foxcatcher
9. The Spectacular Now
10. Labor Day

It doesn't even have a title yet, but somehow, I just think that it's going to win. Partly because of the all-star cast that Russell has assembled. The film stars Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams, Louis CK and Jennifer Lawrence, which is quite the cast. It also seems like the kind of thing that the academy has been going for lately. This film seems to have the same kind of 70's thriller vibe that Argo did and that won best Picture. I also think that the academy feels like it owes something to Russell. He's had quite a career so far and after falling short with Silver Linings Playbook, a film that would have won any other year, he might have earned his Oscar. It isn't a sure thing however and a lot of other films are in contention. The Monuments Men probably has the best chance of winning out of all of the other contenders. Captain Phillips also has a good chance of winning.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

This is another strong category as Hanks and DiCaprio are both really big actors. If Hanks hadn't won twice before, I would say that he takes it. But DiCaprio is a major Hollywood player and has NEVER won an Oscar. I think that the academy will reward him for what he is saying is his strongest work yet. I think that in addition to two noms for Hanks, Idris Elba and Steve Carell will find their way in as well. I actually believe that Carell is a real contender for his role as a psychopath.

BEST ACTRESS

Naomi Watts, Diana
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

This is an extremely tough category to predict. On the one hand, I should just give it to Streep who has a role in the biggest Oscar bait of the season. But after winning for The Iron Lady two years ago, I'm not sure that she will win. Same with Lawrence, who just won for Silver Linings Playbook and Kate Winslet who won for The Reader a few years ago. I'm going with Watts. I think that it is going to be one of those movies where the performances are better than the movie. I think that Lawrence does have a chance of going back to back though and Woodley might win for the Sundance darling.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond The Pines
Benedict Cumberwatch, Star Trek Into Darkness
John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis

I'm thinking that the flashy roles win the supporting actor Oscars most of the time, so I'm going with Mark Ruffalo. This seems like a role that will win supporting actor and I'm hoping that Foxcatcher holds up to expectations. I'm thinking that Goodman will get his first nomination in a while, while Cooper will get another this year. I think that Cumberwatch might get nominated based on the frightening nature of that role which seems to be the standout of that picture.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, David O. Russell's Untitled Abscam Film
Jennifer Lawrence, David O. Russell's Untitled Abscam Film
Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
Scarlett Johannson, Don Jon's Addiction
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Adams has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress four times (Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter and The Master) and I think that it's time that she got her Oscar. David O. Russell films always get great performances out of the actors and I think that his latest project will be no different. Look for Lawrence and Roberts to be strong contenders as well.

BEST DIRECTOR

David O. Russell, David O. Russell's Untitled Abscam Film
George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alexander Payne, Nebraska

Argo's not going to start a pattern. The film that wins Best Picture is going to win Best Director next year and that film is going to be David O. Russell's Abscam film. I think that he will finally get the Oscar he deserves after two nominations. But don't count out Clooney or Scorsese as those films both have a really good shot at winning both director and picture.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Monuments Men
August: Osage County
The Wolf of Wall Street
David O. Russell's Untitled Abscam Film
Captain Phillips

Honestly, I don't know what's based on something and what's not anymore. But no matter what, I'm going with The Monuments Men, which is going to be a taut-Argo style thriller and will appeal directly to the audience that voted for Argo for screenplay last year. August: Osage County will be a contender as well but I'm thinking that it won't win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
Labor Day
The Counselor
The Spectacular Now

This is a close category as usual but the Academy loves Payne's screenplays and I think that Nebraska will be no different. However, the academy has honored all but one of these screenwriters in some way, whether it was a win or nomination and I think that it is a very real possibility that Inside Llewyn Davis or The Counselor end up taking the top prize.


That's it for now. As the season progresses, I will have more. I do have the claim to fame that I predicted Argo as the best picture of 2012 back in September so listen to my picks! But it is going to be a good season based on the number of awesome movies being released.

1 comment:

  1. Great predictions. You seem to have a lot more confidence on Nebraska and Labor Day than myself!

    ReplyDelete