Friday, March 29, 2013

Summer Box Office Predictions- Part 1

The summer movie season just keeps getting earlier and earlier. A couple of years ago, the studios would only release their big-budget tentpoles in the months of May-August with a few sprinkled in the holiday season. Now the season has spread to March and April thanks to Fast Five and The Hunger Games and I figured that I would start my summer box office predictions early. I'll start with G.I. Joe: Retaliation and make my way to Man of Steel.

G.I. JOE: RETALIATION- March 29


Opening Weekend Prediction- $55 million
Total Gross Prediction- $145 million

The lack of PG-13 action movies this year will cause G.I. Joe: Retaliation to have a massive opening weekend but I'm not sure if it will have holding power. And I'm not sure how well it will play in the teen market. A lot of people I have talked to say that they aren't interested in seeing it. But the last real action blockbuster that had a PG-13 rating on it was Skyfall. And that made a lot of money. 

THE HOST- March 29


Opening Weekend Prediction- $20 million
Total Gross Prediction- $65 million

Another Twilight copycat that this time might have some relative success. Warm Bodies was a success but Beautiful Creatures wasn't so it's been a toss-up ever since Twilight ended. The Host is actually from the author of Twilight so it might get some more buzz. Plus, it looks actually tolerable unlike Beautiful Creatures. If it can draw male audiences to see it, then it will be a bigger hit. 

EVIL DEAD- April 5


Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $85 million

Horror movies are in right now and especially ones with zombies. The thing that I think makes Evil Dead a hit is that it has been marketed as "The Most Terrifying Film You Will Ever Experience". That is something that gets butts in seats and I think that it's really going to help that film. The R-rating might limit it but real gore fans are going to show up. 

JURASSIC PARK 3D- April 5


Opening Weekend Prediction- $10 million
Total Gross Prediction- $30 million

Honestly, I think that the end has already come for 3D rereleases. It's just not something that the public wants. That's why this film is going to tank with around $30 million. The interest just is not there to see this film. 

42- April 12

Opening Weekend Predictions- $17 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

I'm not familiar with the gross of sports movies at the box office but I think that 42 is interesting because it's a story that's never been told on the big screen. I'm really interesting in seeing how this turns out and I think that this could be a big hit. I'm convinced that after last year's awards season, people really had the realization that there are good movies that are still entertaining and I think that 42 is going to tap right into that. 

SCARY MOVIE V- April 12


Opening Weekend Prediction- $8 million
Total Gross Prediction- $18 million

Do they think that we're stupid? Scary Movie 5 looks like a cheap, direct to DVD sequel that nobody wants to go see and I think that the grosses will reflect that. If this movie becomes a hit I will be shocked and amazed. Teens aren't this stupid, I hope. 

OBLIVION- April 19

Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $125 million

This is a weird film because I think that it's going to do good based off the action and that it stars Tom Cruise and Morgan Freeman but I don't think that it will do great because of the fact that it's an original science fiction film. I'm thinking that somewhere around $125 million will be a good total for Oblivion. 

THE BIG WEDDING- April 26


Opening Weekend Prediction- $21 million
Total Gross Prediction- $59 million

The common sentiment on the internet since this film received it's R rating but I'm still not convinced that the film will be a good movie. I think that because of its cast and how Robert De Niro has been back in the spotlight will help this film but I'm not really sure. 

PAIN AND GAIN- April 26


Opening Weekend Prediction- $35 million
Total Gross Prediction- $90 million

Pain and Gain might actually be one of the macho action movies that succeeds this year. It's got a nice cast and if it's PG-13, it'll get a lot of teens in seats. I hope that it's good and I think that it will make a nice $90 million in the US. 

IRON MAN 3- May 3

Opening Weekend Prediction- $165 million
Total Gross Prediction- $450 million

Iron Man 3 is the first film in Marvel's phase two and by all accounts, I'm sure that it's going to be a smash. Iron Man is the most popular character in the Marvel canon and I think that he can drive a film to wild success unlike any other character. I think that The Avengers will help this film's gross and since there's an Avengers sequel coming, people are going to want to check this one out.

THE GREAT GATSBY- May 10

Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $100 million

The summer blockbuster series is typically without any dramas to offset the massive amounts of superheros and explosions that are at the multiplex. But this year there is. The Great Gatsby has a great cast, a famous director, a unique look and will be a modest hit because of the adult audiences that Hollywood has seriously under-estimated for years.

STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS- May 24


Opening Weekend Prediction-$115 million
Total Gross Prediction- $400 million

One of my most anticipated movies of the year is likely to be one of the biggest movies of the year. It's got plenty of action and it's the sequel to one of the most beloved sci-fi movies of the last few years. Look at The Dark Knight and Batman Begins. That's what I see going down with Star Trek Into Darkness.

EPIC- May 24


Opening 4-Day Weekend Prediction- $50 million
Total Gross Prediction- $130 million

Animated movies are typically successful no matter what and I'm putting high marks on this film just because of that. But I have my doubts about Epic. It just doesn't seem like the type of animated film that is really successful at the box office. But hey, I could be wrong.

FAST AND FURIOUS 6- May 24


Opening 4-Day Weekend Prediction- $110 million
Total Gross Prediction- $250 million

Judging by the success of the last film, I don't see this installment being anything short of a hit. This franchise just keeps getting bigger and bigger and the latest film looks to be more action-packed than any other film in the series. It could be impacted by franchise fatigue but I don't see that.

THE HANGOVER PART III- May 24


Opening 4-Day Weekend Prediction- $90 million
Total Gross Prediction- $210 million

It's the conclusion of a trilogy according to the producers and I think that the promise of the end of the franchise might be a plus mark for a lot of fans. Broad comedies are also "in" right now and I think that even though the last film was a disaster, Part III will be a success.

NOW YOU SEE ME- May 31


Opening Weekend Predictions- $25 million
Total Gross Prediction- $75 million

Now You See Me looks good. Really good. But I'm not sure how well that it's going to do against really popular film franchises like Star Trek and Fast and Furious and stars like Will Smith. I do think that it will do good based on star power alone and the concept but as The Incredible Burt Wonderstone proved, magic doesn't sell.

AFTER EARTH- June 7


Opening Weekend Prediction- $45 million
Total Gross Prediction- $130 million

Will Smith's one of the few stars who can still drive a movie and the team-up with his son in this one is going to be heavily publicized. But still, the trailers are vague and I don't think that it looks particularly exciting but the father-son team could get people to see the film.

THE INTERNSHIP- June 7


Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $120 million

I don't know what it is be we as a country have been watching a lot more comedies and dramas lately rather than super-violent thrillers. I think that the change will really benefit broad comedies like The Internship and help it get a healthy gross. Plus, people like Google.

THIS IS THE END- June 14

Opening Weekend Prediction- $27 million
Total Gross Prediction- $65 million

The following week comes a different comedy that I'm assuming is going to be a whole lot more raunchy. The Internship might be rated R but This is the End is REALLY going to be R judging by the twenty seconds of the red band trailer I saw. But I think that the audience is there for these guys and people will like the concept so it will be a success.

MAN OF STEEL- June 14


Opening Weekend Prediction- $100 million
Total Gross Prediction- $315 million

Although Superman doesn't have a great track record at the box office, I just have a feeling that this is going to be an event movie. It's produced by Christopher Nolan and that name alone is going to get people to see it. Plus, early buzz on the film is good so I think that we're in for a hit here.

That's it for Part 1. But look for Part 2 soon as I go from Monsters University to The Mortal Instruments. 

1 comment:

  1. Ouch that "Internship" was wrong :) Still I predicted $200M for "Lone Ranger"

    ReplyDelete