Thursday, April 4, 2013

Summer Box Office Predictions- Part 2

I'm back with part 2 of my Summer Box Office Predictions. We'll be tracking films from World War Z to The Mortal Instruments, our end of summer film. Here we go:

WORLD WAR Z- June 21


Opening Weekend Prediction- $75 million
Total Gross Prediction- $235 million

Zombies are hot. The Walking Dead is the most popular show on television and the genre has seen a massive resurgence in the last few years. World War Z is a zombie film. That gets people interested. But the fact that it's a major blockbuster with Brad Pitt in it is going to drive this film. At my school, interest is high, which makes me think that World War Z is going to be big.

MONSTERS UNIVERSITY- June 21


Opening Weekend Prediction- $90 million
Total Gross Prediction- $350 million

Pixar always makes films that are big money makers. But I have a feeling that the brand recognition of Monsters Inc., plus the fact that the original is beloved, will push Monsters University to be the second highest grossing Pixar film of all time. It looks funny as well. 

THE HEAT- June 28


Opening Weekend Prediction- $50 million
Total Gross Prediction- $180 million

Melissa McCarthy is honestly the biggest comedian in Hollywood. I know that most people don't want to admit that, but when a poorly reviewed comedy like Identity Thief makes $130 million, you know that something drove the film. McCarthy is a sensation and I think that The Heat will be even more popular because of the buddy cop plot and Sandra Bullock. Plus it was moved into the thick of summer by Fox. This year's comedy breakout is The Heat. 

WHITE HOUSE DOWN- June 28


Opening Weekend Prediction- $55 million
Total Gross Prediction- $175 million

There has already been one takeover-the The White House movie this year, but it was rated R. That took away the teen audience that loves that kind of shoot-em up thriller. That is my only slimmer of hope for White House Down but Roland Emmerich's box office track record helps as well. 

THE LONE RANGER- July 3


Opening 5-Day Weekend Prediction- $80 million
Total Gross Prediction- $160 million

My hopes for this film's box office lie solely on the starpower of one man: Johnny Depp. If he's not in this film, it doesn't see the light of day. But I think that due to the fact that Depp is such a big star and that The Lone Ranger is a recognizable property, people will turn out to see it. 

DESPICABLE ME 2- July 3


Opening 5-Day Weekend Prediction- $110 million
Total Gross Prediction- $300 million

Despicable Me is one of the most beloved animated properties of the last few years. And not only was it beloved, it was popular too. I'm excited to go back for more Gru. Look for this to make more than the original.

PACIFIC RIM- July 12


Opening Weekend Prediction- $60 million
Total Gross Prediction- $190 million

Pacific Rim looks like the kind of summer film that can break out. People love to see things explode and this one has the fanboy support more than Transformers did. Hopefully, it can overcome some bad reactions to the first trailer (mostly in my school).

GROWN UPS 2- July 12


Opening Weekend Prediction- $45 million
Total Gross Prediction- $150 million

Ugh, I know. Adam Sandler's shtick has gotten old real fast. But he may have found a franchise here with his men acting like idiots film, Grown Ups. It'll open bigger than the first one but finish with less money is my prediction. Mostly thanks to the competition of the month.

TURBO- July 17


Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $150 million

Turbo is a film that will have really good legs. That is due to the fact that Despicable Me 2 opens only a few weeks before. But still, it's the absurdist entertainment that we all want in animated films and Turbo seems like it will deliver. It does look good and there are no options until The Smurfs 2, so.

RED 2- July 19


Opening Weekend Prediction- $28 million
Total Gross Prediction- $80 million

The original Red made $90 million. Thanks to the crowded summer schedule, I see Red 2 doing less. It just won't hold up to the massive explosions of Pacific Rim or the supernatural thrills of RIPD. But I think that Red 2 will do just fine.

THE CONJURING- July 19


Opening Weekend Prediction- $35 million
Total Gross Prediction- $80 million

If any film is going to break out this summer, it will be James Wan's new film The Conjuring. A lot will be made of the fact that it was too scary for a PG-13 and Warner Bros. is going to milk that like crazy. But do you remember the last time a film was too scary for a PG-13. It was Don't be Afraid of the Dark. How'd that turn out?

R.I.P.D- July 19


Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $110 million

I'm hesitant about this one because I think that it might get moved. Three months from the release date and no footage? Not a good sign. But it's still an expensive blockbuster and it's like Men in Black supposedly so I think that some interest will be there.

THE WOLVERINE- July 26


Opening Weekend Prediction- $75 million
Total Gross Prediction- $220 million

The X-Men's most famous character will be a big draw in the late summer. The trailer got modest reception but I think that fans are back on board after the enjoyable debacle that was Origins. This one is a big movie this summer so I think that it will top $200 million.

300: RISE OF AN EMPIRE- August 2


Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $75 million

No Zach Snyder. No Gerald Butler. No $200 million gross. Simple as that.

2 GUNS- August 2


Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $125 million

Response to the trailer was really good with some drawing comparisons to Lethal Weapon and the star power of the two leads, Mark Wahlberg and Denzel Washington, I definitely see this topping $100 million.

THE SMURFS 2- August 2


Opening Weekend Prediction- $50 million
Total Gross Prediction- $160 million

Kids eat this stuff up and I think that a sequel to the film that they already know and love is destined to be a hit.

ELYSIUM- August 9


Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $150 million

In my opinion, Elysium is an early Oscar contender and after what many people consider a masterpiece in District 9, Neil Blomkamp's name will do a lot of good for the grosses of his latest feature.

PLANES- August 9


Opening Weekend Prediction- $26 million
Total Gross Prediction- $70 million

The crossover appeal to Pixar's Cars is what will make this film a hit and I think that family audiences will go for this. But it's already a crowded summer.

KICK- ASS 2- August 16


Opening Weekend Prediction- $25 million
Total Gross- $55 million

The first film wasn't exactly a blockbuster but with the added star power of Jim Carrey, maybe this film will break out. But Burt Wonderstone didn't, so I don't really know.

PERCY JACKSON: THE SEA OF MONSTERS- August 16


Opening Weekend Prediction- $20 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

Another sequel that not a single person wants. The first one was rejected by fans and I don't see Sea of Monsters doing anything better than The Lightning Thief.

THE WORLD'S END- August 23


Opening Weekend Prediction- $10 million
Total Gross Prediction- $40 million

Wright's box office track record is awful and I don't see The World's End breaking out. It's a more niche comedy and I think that it will still succeed despite not making a ton of money.

THE MORTAL INSTRUMENTS: CITY OF BONES- August 23


Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $90 million

Another toss-up. The young adult genre has been flip-flopping lately and The Mortal Instruments is the latest film in a long chain of YA movies. The book is better know so I think that it will do better than any other YA films released this year. Besides Hunger Games. No film is going to do better than that.

That's it for my summer box office predictions. See you later for the fall predictions. 

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