Tuesday, June 18, 2013

The Franchise Machine: Which films off the summer schedule will get sequels?

First, before I start my lengthy, numbers-based dissertation of which films from summer 2013's slate will get sequels, I'll start with which films from the last two summers received sequels, either coming soon or already released.

2011

Fast Five- YES
Thor- YES
Bridesmaids- NO
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides- YES
Kung Fu Panda 2- YES
X-Men: First Class- YES
Super 8- NO
Green Lantern- NO
Cars 2- NO
Transformers: Dark of the Moon- YES
Zookeeper- NO
Horrible Bosses- YES
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II- NO
Captain America: The First Avenger- YES
The Smurfs- YES
Cowboys and Aliens- NO
Rise of the Planet of the Apes- YES
Final Destination 5- NO
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World- NO
Conan the Barbarian- NO

2012

The Avengers- YES
Dark Shadows- NO
The Dictator- NO
Battleship- NO
Men In Black 3- POSSIBLE
Snow White and the Huntsman- POSSIBLE
Prometheus- POSSIBLE
Madagascar 3- NO
That's My Boy- NO
Brave- NO
Magic Mike- POSSIBLE
Ted- POSSIBLE
The Amazing Spider-Man- YES
Ice Age: Continental Drift- NO
The Dark Knight Rises- NO
Total Recall- NO
The Bourne Legacy- NO
The Expendables 2- YES

So, as you can see, summer is franchise breeding time for studios. They put all their money into making movies that will draw in big bucks and then make sequels after sequels. A lot of 2012 films are still up in their but I'm betting on Ted and Snow White sequels. Now let's take a look at 2013's summer slate and the films that are most ripe for franchising (The Great Gatsby not included).

PART I: Films in Theaters

For these films, I will give their worldwide box office so far and guess if there will be a sequel.

IRON MAN 3

Budget- $200 million
Worldwide Box Office- $1.2 billion
Sequel Likelihood- As Marvel's most popular hero, a sequel seems like a no brainer here. But odds are, standalone Iron Man movies are done. The character will return in a sort-of-sequel. But Iron Man 4 is unlikely.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 33%

STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS

Budget- $190 million
Worldwide Box Office- $412 million
Sequel Likelihood- This installment was generally well received and if Paramount can lower the budget a bit this time, there's no reason why Star Trek 3 won't hit theaters in 2016.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 85%

FAST AND FURIOUS 6

Budget- $160 million
Worldwide Box Office- $636 million
Sequel Likelihood- Fast Seven is already dated for July 11, 2014 so only the end of the world could stop it.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 99.9999%

THE HANGOVER PART III

Budget- $103 million
Worldwide Box Office- $309 million
Sequel Likelihood- Even though this film is turning a profit, the odds of a sequel are slim as Todd Phillips and the cast have pretty much stated that this is the end.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 10%

EPIC

Budget- $100 million
Worldwide Box Office- $212 million
Sequel Likelihood- Probable. Blue Sky likes their franchises and Epic is probably going to break even in the end.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 75%

AFTER EARTH

Budget- $130 million
Worldwide Box Office- $102 million
Sequel Likelihood- This is already being considered a John Carter-style flop, so the odds of any more films in this universe are slim.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 3%

NOW YOU SEE ME

Budget- $75 million
Worldwide Box Office- $108 million
Sequel Likelihood- Now You See Me has been the box office sensation of the summer, but the end of the film is pretty definitive. I'm not liking the chances of this one.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 20%

THE PURGE

Budget- $3 million
Worldwide Box Office- $58 million
Sequel Likelihood- Odds are, The Purge is going to be around for a while. But poor word of mouth might doom the sequel.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 95%

THE INTERNSHIP

Budget- $58 million
Worldwide Box Office- $36 million
Sequel Likelihood- Very small. This movie is not going to turn a profit after all the marketing that Fox did for it to still fail at the box office.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 1%

THIS IS THE END

Budget- $32 million
Worldwide Box Office- $33 million
Sequel Likelihood- The ending of the film is pretty definitive so unless Rogen and Goldberg do "Adventures in Heaven", there will be no sequel
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 10%

MAN OF STEEL

Budget- $225 million
Worldwide Box Office- $214 million
Sequel Likelihood- Almost assured. This movie was too big not to get a sequel.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

PART II: The Upcoming Summer Films

For these, I will make a worldwide box office projection based on Box Office Mojo, Box Office and my own knowledge.

WORLD WAR Z

Budget- $175 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $450 million
Sequel Likelihood- A good chance. Pitt wanted to make a trilogy the whole time. But Paramount might not be so certain after the first one went over budget. But I think there's a good chance.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 70%

WHITE HOUSE DOWN

Budget- $150 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $320 million
Sequel Likelihood- Not good. White House Down should do fine in the states but its not really a worldwide property. But it is a marketable franchise. "Disney World Down"
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 30%

THE HEAT

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $300 million
Sequel Likelihood- Almost certain. Fox has already announced plans for The Heat 2.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 98%

THE LONE RANGER

Budget- $250 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $430 million
Sequel Likelihood- Ugh. The budget is just so, so high.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 49%

DESPICABLE ME 2

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $700 million
Sequel Likelihood- Really, really high. A spinoff is headed to theaters in 2014 and Despicable Me 3 can't be far behind.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 99%

PACIFIC RIM

Budget- $200 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $500 million
Sequel Likelihood- Good. I think that the Foreign box office will carry this one to the finish line.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 75%

GROWN UPS 2

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $200 million
Sequel Likelihood- Although the odds are this movie will be bashed, the odds are there will be a Grown Ups 3.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 85%

RED 2

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $200 million
Sequel Likelihood- Probable. The budgets aren't horrible on these things, so look for Red 3 soon.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 90%

R.I.P.D

Budget- Estimated $200 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $120 million
Sequel Likelihood- The slimmest of any film this summer.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 0.000000001%

THE WOLVERINE

Budget- $100 million +
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $400 million
Sequel Likelihood- We'll see more Wolverine, but I don't know if there will be a direct sequel.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 32%

THE SMURFS 2

Budget- NA
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $600 million
Sequel Likelihood- La la la la la la, Smurfs 3 in 2015.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 99.99%

2 GUNS

Budget- $90 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $250 million
Sequel Likelihood- I think that this will get real traction domestically so this will get franchised.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 90%

PERCY JACKSON: THE SEA OF MONSTERS

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $200 million
Sequel Likelihood- They'll probably finish this off with a third movie.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 55%

ELYSIUM

Budget- $100 million-$120 million
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $300 million
Sequel Likelihood- This doesn't look like a franchise thing.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 3%

PLANES

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $120 million
Sequel Likelihood- It's already on the schedule for next year so it's almost a certainty.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 99%

KICK-ASS 2

Budget- N/A
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $140 million
Sequel Likelihood- Meh. I don't know. It just seems like it could really flop after a summer of superheros.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 33%

THE MORTAL INSTRUMENTS

Budget- NA
Projected Worldwide Box Office- $150 million
Sequel Likelihood- Good. This seems like it could be a big YA franchise.
Percent Chance of a Sequel- 60%

So, if I'm right here, there will be a:

Star Trek 3
Fast and Furious 7
Epic 2
The Purge 2
Man of Steel 2
World War Z 2
The Heat 2
Despicable Me 2
Pacific Rim 2
Grown Ups 3
Red 3
The Smurfs 3
2 Guns 2
Percy Jackson 3
Planes 2
The Mortal Instruments 2

Look for a wrap-up at the end of summer.

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