Sunday, September 8, 2013

Fall Box Office Predictions- Part 2

After Part 1 last week, I now present you with Part 2 of my fall box office predictions.

ENDER'S GAME- November 1

Opening Weekend Prediction- $37 million
Total Gross Prediction- $91 million

Is it the next big YA phenomenon or the next big YA flop? Ender's Game is a film that I see falling into the latter category but not without trouble. The film has become the subject of much hatred due to the radical views of its homophobic author Orson Scott Card. However, I don't see that being a major factor in the box office productivity of the film. It's got male appeal, which means a likely hit. 

FREE BIRDS- November 1

Opening Weekend Prediction- $14 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

Free Birds is a great concept that could go nowhere thanks to the small marketing budget that Relativity Media has. It's got a pair of appealing stars in Owen Wilson and Woody Harrelson but it also looks exceedingly stupid and lacking in any sort of heart or charm. However, it will be the first family film in a month so parents and kids will turn out anyways. 

LAST VEGAS- November 1

Opening Weekend Prediction- $22 million
Total Gross Prediction- $70 million

Word of mouth will probably be good on this one, as it has a bunch of stars that have major appeal to older audiences. Last Vegas could also be a hit with teenagers who are looking for a good PG-13 comedy to go to. However, unless this film is really funny, I don't see a breakout hit like The Hangover in the cards. But solid grosses nonetheless. 

ABOUT TIME- November 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $17 million
Total Gross Prediction- $65 million

This is a film that actually looks really, really good. It's got this kind of low key, British charm to it that makes me want to see it. And, it's a romantic film and there don't seem to be many of those these days. However, About Time doesn't have enough star power to become a major hit and it isn't based on a Nicolas Sparks novel, which sets it back quite a bit. 

THOR: THE DARK WORLD- November 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $90 million
Total Gross Prediction- $285 million

The so called "Avengers Boost" will certainly come into play with Thor: The Dark World as the sequel to the 2011 hit will look to capitalize on the success of 2012's The Avengers. However, there is a chance that this is Marvel's first bad film as it has had a lot of bad press, director changes and a completely unclear narrative. At the least, the opening weekend will be big. 

THE BEST MAN HOLIDAY- November 15

Opening Weekend Prediction- $16.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

This is another one of those sequels that I'm not sure anyone cares about, but somehow, it will still make money. The Best Man Holiday is also Christmas themed, which gives it legs and an advantage in a season defunct of many winter films. However, the film's audience isn't big enough to carry this one much further than $50 million. 

THE BOOK THIEF- November 15

Opening Weekend Prediction- $12 million
Total Gross Prediction- $45 million

The Book Thief is one of those films that I see getting lost in the Oscar shuffle. It looks fine, and it's completely begging for Oscar attention, but I'm not sure that it contains that great performance or that extra flash that is necessary for it to get nominations. Commercially, I don't see much of it and without any major stars, this Holocaust drama could get lost in the busy season. 

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET- November 15

Opening Weekend Prediction- $49 million
Total Gross Prediction- $210 million

The Wolf of Wall Street looks like a perfect cross between commercial viability and Oscar success. The Wolf of Wall Street has a great cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, and Jonah Hill and has a spectacular first trailer. Plus, it's almost guaranteed to get awards season attention, and it's directed by the legendary Martin Scorsese. I see nothing but a smash hit from this one. 

DELIVERY MAN- November 22

Opening Weekend Prediction- $15 million
Total Gross Prediction- $45 million

I went very high on The Internship back in my Summer Box Office Predictions article, and I'm not going to be on Vince Vaughn again. In this film, he stars a man who donated to a sperm bank and by mistake becomes the biological father of 533 children. Somehow, this movie is PG-13. In a busy season, people might want a comedy, but I don't see many people going to this one. 

THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE- November 22

Opening Weekend Prediction- $190 million
Total Gross Prediction- $450 million

The Hunger Games was a massive hit back in 2012, when the popularity of the series had reached a fever pitch. The audience is still there for a sequel to this film and it's going to be massive. With a more action-packed story, and more star power, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire has the potential to be a much bigger success than the original. I think that it will be. 

BLACK NATIVITY- November 27

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $17 million
Total Gross Prediction- $39 million

With so many great films coming out in the second half of this year, some of them are guaranteed to get lost in the shuffle. I already said that The Book Thief would and I would add Black Nativity to that list. It's got an all-star cast of African-American actors and a nice premise but I don't really see it going anywhere. This one is going to be a small, middle of the road success. 

OLDBOY- November 27

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $24 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

A dark and nasty revenge thriller on Thanksgiving might not sound like a great idea, but there is a passionate following for Chan Park-Wook's original thriller and a remake is something that people will surely be interested in. But it is very dark and very violent, so we'll see if that turns people off to the film. There's a decent sized following of Lee and the original to carry part the $50 million mark, however. 

FROZEN- November 27

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $70 million
Total Gross Prediction- $220 million

This is something that will be playing until February. It's the only animated film this holiday season and it's the latest from Disney animation, who have been on a hot streak lately with Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph. It looks like Disney will give Frozen a similar marketing push and that alone is enough to carry this film pretty far. The fact that it actually looks good will also give it some clout. 

MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM- November 29

Opening Weekend Prediction- $9 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

I have no idea when this film is going to go wide, so for now, I'm assuming that this film will come out wide. It looks good, but it doesn't have a great cast or a mainly recognizable actor at the center. Reviews out of Tiff will be the key. If Mandela ends up being a legitimate Oscar contender, then the grosses for this film will only end up higher. 

OUT OF THE FURNACE- December 6

Opening Weekend Prediction- $20 million
Total Gross Prediction- $80 million

Another week, another Oscar contender. This time, it's an On The Waterfront-esque crime drama starring Christian Bale, Casey Affleck and Woody Harrelson in a villainous role. This movie is going to be good. I'm not sure how big its appeal is commercially but I think that the star power is enough to keep this movie going full steam ahead into the Oscar race. 

TYLER PERRY'S A MADEA CHRISTMAS- December 13

Opening Weekend Prediction- $20 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

There's nothing new or groundbreaking here and the box office grosses will stay steady. There's an audience for this film and they keep these films afloat. I think that the Christmas theme will also help slightly but not enough to expand on Madea's loyal audience. 

THE HOBBIT: DESOLATION OF SMAUG- December 13

Opening Weekend Prediction- $73 million
Total Gross Prediction- $295 million

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was not especially well-received when it came out in 2012 but I'm not sure that it's going to stop people from seeing the second installment. If the reviews are better on this film, then I think that Desolation will end up close to the total of the first film. But if it's still as drawn out and boring as An Unexpected Journey, then Desolation of Smaug better get ready for dipping grosses.

THE MONUMENTS MEN- December 18

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $35 million
Total Gross Prediction- $120 million

A true crowd-pleaser from the looks of it, The Monuments Men is a film that could experience success both commercially and critically. While there was mass concern back in August when a rumor leaked about Columbia opting not to launch an Oscar campaign, The Monuments Men still looks like a very good film that should match the business of last year's Argo.

WALKING WITH DINOSAURS- December 20

Opening Weekend Prediction- $9 million
Total Gross Prediction- $30 million

This looks like a really bad film and one that I am pretty sure will get lost in the Christmas shuffle. It seems to be a documentary-esque dinosaur family film that recreates certain events in the dinosaur period, but it doesn't have much dialogue. I don't see the demographic for this film and Fox better hope that they didn't spend much money on this.

INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS- December 20

Opening Weekend Prediction- $9.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $115 million

For a comparison on Inside Llewyn Davis, I looked to last year's Silver Linings Playbook. On the first weekend in which it played in wide release, the film took in $10 million. I don't see Inside Llewyn Davis being as commercially viable, but I think that this is a major awards season heavyweight and it certainly will build off of word of mouth to eventually become a major hit.

SAVING MR. BANKS- December 20

Opening Weekend Prediction- $27 million
Total Gross Prediction- $130 million

This is a great move by Disney to release this film near Christmas, as this is exactly the kind of film that people will eat up at this time of year. Saving Mr. Banks is sure to get a ton of Oscar buzz for its two lead performances from Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson and it has a crowd-pleasing factor that will eventually lead to a long and healthy run.

ANCHORMAN 2: THE LEGEND CONTINUES- December 20

Opening Weekend Prediction- $47 million
Total Gross Prediction- $210 million

This is certainly going to be the biggest comedy of the year. Anchorman has built a steady fanbase over the years, to the point where it has a real chance at commercial viability. The first film made $84 million and I believe that during the nine years between films, the fanbase has grown enough to be a massive worldwide franchise.

GRUDGE MATCH- December 25

Five- Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $16 million
Total Gross Prediction- $40 million

With a bounty of films coming out on Christmas day, one is bound to get lost in the shuffle. That film is Grudge Match. Starring Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro as elderly boxers, this is a film that should be released in January-March, but for some reason, isn't. Originally, Warner Bros. set this film up for a January release, but moved it. Maybe they see something I don't.

AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY- December 25

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $20 million
Total Gross Prediction- $80 million

Let's assume that this film is opening in wide release. August: Osage County is really depending on its Tiff premiere this week for its shot at a box office outbreak. The general consensus on the internet is currently negative, but I think that the cast, led by Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts and Ewan McGregor, will certainly get some box office returns.

47 RONIN- December 25

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $32 million
Total Gross Prediction- $75 million

Universal knows that 47 Ronin has no chance of winning this Christmas weekend. It just needs to release this film. It has been constantly delayed, bad press has built up worse than my homework load, and it's budget is massive. That said, it's likely to suffer from the glut of films being released. However, it could make some coin if The Hobbit really disappoints. Still, this is a title with mostly international appeal.

THE SECRET LIFE OF WALTER MITTY- December 25

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $35 million
Total Gross Prediction- $140 million

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty is this year's Life of Pi, plain and simple. It's an odd, big budget, PG drama, that is loaded with Oscar potential. I'm a bit more bullish on Walter Mitty because of its star power, but it's still in about the same league as its other films. For families and people looking for something a bit different, Walter Mitty is sure to be their go-to film.

AMERICAN HUSTLE- December 25

Five- Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $45 million
Total Gross Prediction- $150 million

Maybe you think that releasing a sexed-up, 1970's set Oscar contender on Christmas day is an odd choice. Look at Django Unchained and come back. This year's Oscar favorite, American Hustle is a film that will have major commercial appeal. Jennifer Lawrence is now a huge star, and all the other cast members have found major successes of their own. Look for a major commercial and critical hit.

JACK RYAN: SHADOW ONE- December 25

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $60 million
Total Gross Prediction- $170 million

Jack Ryan: Shadow One is the last big action film of 2013 and it's got a lot of potential. It's directed by Kenneth Branagh, who has proven his blockbuster chops with Thor, and it stars Chris Pine, Keira Knightley, Kevin Costner and Branagh himself. This is a film that has appeal with multiple demographics and could wind up as one of our next great franchises.

NOTE: Her, Labor Day, and Lone Survivor have not been included thanks to the fact that they don't go wide until January.

So that's it for my fall box office predictions. We'll see how I do. 

3 comments:

  1. Re: Grudge Match/WB "Maybe they see something I don't."
    Maybe the film?

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  2. I think you're throwing out 200 million domestic grosses a little too much, I definitely don't see "The Wolf Of Wall Street" or "Anchorman 2" topping 200 million domestic, of course they'll top 100 million easily. I think you're predictions on "Thor: D" and "The Hobbit: DOS" is pretty close to what those films will end up doing. And while I agree with you that "Catching Fire" will make the most money of any film in the Fall/Winter, 190 million opening and 450 million totals are both too high in my opinion, I think more along the lines of a 160-170 million opening and a 370-400 million total. You have to remember that 'Hunger Games' had absolutely no competition for a good month, this film will face loads of competition as you've mentioned. But we'll soon see.

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  3. An Unexpected Journey was "drawn out and boring"? Are you kidding me? I completely enjoyed all of the movie and completely disagree. However, I do agree with the prediction.

    ReplyDelete