Sunday, January 12, 2014

The Movie Guru's Golden Globe Predictions

Tonight, the first real awards show of the season will occur. The Golden Globe awards will air at 8PM tomorrow night, marking the true start of the awards season. Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are hosting again and the show promises to be just as entertaining as ever. The Golden Globes aren't always the best indicator of what will happen with the Oscars, but it always helps to see where the support is going with other guilds. This year, there are some close races, and some surefire winners, but it will all be fun to watch. Here are my predictions for the 2014 Golden Globes:

BEST MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

12 Years A Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

The clear favorite in this category is Steve McQueen's breathtaking drama 12 Years A Slave. The Oscar race has clearly narrowed itself down to 12 Years A Slave and American Hustle at this point and the fact that they're in different categories here solidifies a 12 Years A Slave win. Gravity could play spoiler in this category, but I'm pretty certain that 12 Years wins.

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost

This is the one true toss-up. McConaughey has gained a ton of support over the last couple of weeks, but Ejiofor still has a ton of momentum. I think that Redford could surprise us with a win here, but I think that there's a slim chance of that here. I think that Ejiofor takes this one. 12 Years A Slave has a ton of support and Ejiofor's performance is one of the things that makes that film great.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

I've resisted choosing Blanchett for the win here since Blue Jasmine premiered, but I have to go with her here. The momentum for her performance is just too strong, and while Bullock and Dench are also strong contenders, Blanchett takes the win here easily.

BEST MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

Despite the fact that both American Hustle and Inside Llewyn Davis are great films and despite the fact that Her, Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street have strong supporters, this is a really easy category to predict. American Hustle is the clear winner. It's the fun Hollywood favorite and I would be so shocked if Hustle doesn't win.

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

This is one of the most competitive categories and I think that any five of the contenders could win. I'm going with Dern here. I think that the support for The Wolf of Wall Street is weakening by the day and I don't think that any of the other performances have enough support. I think that Dern has the momentum here and will take home the win.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

There is one clear favorite here: Amy Adams. She gives a strong performance at the center of American Hustle and I'n sure that she will win. Meryl Streep has an outside chance, but I'll be shocked if this doesn't go to Amy Adams. Other than those two, this category is really weak.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

Can you really say anything else but Frozen here? There's not a chance in the world that Frozen doesn't win here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Blue Is The Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

This is another category that is incredibly tough to predict. All five of these films have received critical raves and I don't think that there's a clear frontrunner here. I'm going to go with Blue is the Warmest Color. I think that it has the best shot at this point, and since it won't be nominated for an Oscar, I think that the HFPA goes with it here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Another category that is extremely easy to predict. Jared Leto takes this award here and will most certainly take the Oscar on March 2. The film has strong support and his performance has even stronger support. While Cooper and Fassbender may have an outside chance, Leto is the clear favorite here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

While most prognosticators have narrowed it down between Lawrence and Nyong'o at this point, I've pretty much narrowed it down to one. Jennifer Lawrence is going to win this award. She might not win the Oscar, but she certainly wins this award. The HFPA seems to like the more fun stuff, and Hustle is definitely the most fun out of the bunch.

BEST DIRECTOR- MOTION PICTURE

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Cuaron's the clear favorite in this category because Gravity is going to get no other support. There's little chance that it wins best picture or best actress, so best director is the only shot it has. I think that Cuaron's direction is superb, and his directorial eye makes the film great. That's why the Golden Globe will go to Cuaron.

BEST SCREENPLAY- MOTION PICTURE

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle

I'm going with the win for American Hustle here. All five screenplays have a great shot, but American Hustle is the strongest contender. I think that Her and Philomena could pull off upsets, but I'm not sure at this point. I think that American Hustle will be favored more by the HFPA and therefore, American Hustle will win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- MOTION PICTURE

Alex Ebert, All is Lost
Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years A Slave

While I didn't necessarily find Steven Price's score for Gravity all that memorable, I think that it wins here. All is Lost and 12 Years are also strong contenders, but Gravity seems to have all of the momentum at this point in time. Expect Price to take home the Globe tonight.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG- MOTION PICTURE

"Atlas", The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
"Let it Go", Frozen
"Ordinary Love", Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"Please Mr. Kennedy", Inside Llewyn Davis
"Sweeter than Fiction", One Chance

"Let it Go" is a beloved song and all the support is behind it. The only other real contender is "Please Mr. Kennedy" but I doubt it can win. Just put another tick in the win box for Frozen.

Those are my predictions. What are yours? Let me know in the comment section below and be sure to tune in to the Golden Globes tonight at 8PM EST and 5PM PST.

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