Sunday, March 9, 2014

Spring Box Office Predictions

The Oscar season is done and while I soon will do a preview of next year's Oscars, I'm focusing on the current movies right now. After a pretty strong January and February, the box office really ramps up in March and April with some big time hits and some movies that could flop really badly. Here are my predictions for the spring box office. I'll have reviews of some of these films shortly as well.

MR. PEABODY AND SHERMAN- March 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $32.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $126.4 million

I'm kind of cheating on this one since I already have a rough estimate of the box office gross of Mr. Peabody and Sherman, but I decided to put this prediction on here anyways. Mr. Peabody and Sherman received an "A" Cinemascore last night, which means that stellar word of mouth is ahead. With no other family films in theaters until Muppets Most Wanted, I can definitely see Mr. Peabody and Sherman nearing $130 million.

300: RISE OF AN EMPIRE- March 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $47 million
Total Gross Prediction- $110.5 million

I'm cheating a bit on this one as well, but the interesting part is whether or not Rise of An Empire will received any good word of mouth. The film received a "B" Cinemascore, but hits like Bad Grandpa and Anchorman 2 also received "B" Cinemascores and went on to make a lot of money. I really have no clue. I think that 300 will top out just above $100 million.

THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL- March 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $700,000
Total Gross Prediction- $32 million

The Grand Budapest Hotel is a movie that I'm super excited to see. It looks like a lot of fun and Wes Anderson always creates films that are incredibly creative. And with a spectacular limited release opening this weekend, The Grand Budapest Hotel seems destined for great things. I think that a grand total above $30 million is a sure thing.

NEED FOR SPEED- March 14

Opening Weekend Prediction- $24 million
Total Gross Prediction- $67 million

Need for Speed is essentially two things. Firstly, it's a Fast and Furious ripoff. It's essentially the same setup. Lots of car chases, angry people, etc. Secondly, it's an attempt to capitalize on Aaron Paul's newfound fame after Breaking Bad. Both seem like they could draw people in, but at the same time, they could turn people away from the movie as well. It looks like fun, but Need for Speed could end up being too generic for its own good.

TYLER PERRY'S THE SINGLE MOMS CLUB- March 14

Opening Weekend Prediction- $10 million
Total Gross Prediction- $24 million

It's sad to say, but if it's a Tyler Perry movie and it doesn't have Madea, the film doesn't make as much money. Last year, Perry had success in March with Temptation, but I see this film ending up more like Peeples, the film that flopped miserably last May. The film looks like it could be something that a lot of women see, but I just don't know. This one is a real toss-up. It could go either way.

DIVERGENT- March 21

Opening Weekend Prediction- $81 million
Total Gross Prediction- $190 million

There have been many YA adaptations recently and they all have flopped. Divergent will not be a failure. This film is going to be a major, major hit. My predictions are extremely conservative. Divergent is tracking very highly on Fandango and could end up being as big as The Hunger Games. For now, I'm pegging it at $190 million total. But that could definitely change.

MUPPETS MOST WANTED- March 21

Opening Weekend Prediction- $21.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $74 million

Without the star power of Jason Segel and Amy Adams, Muppets Most Wanted will not be as big of a success. However, the marketing campaign has been hilarious and people love the Muppets, so I wouldn't be surprised if this became as big as the original film. Right now though, I see this film grossing just a little bit less than its predecessor.

SABOTAGE- March 28

Opening Weekend Prediction- $12 million
Total Gross Prediction- $41 million

Sabotage could actually revive Arnold Schwarzenegger's career if it's a success. He's working with David Ayer and a talented cast and Sabotage looks like a pretty hardcore action movie. However, I doubt that this film will be a big hit. This is not the type of film that makes a ton of money, but it doesn't really need to be a blockbuster. Sabotage needs to be a decent sized hit and get good reviews, then maybe Schwarzenegger's career will get back on track.

BAD WORDS- March 14 (limited), March 28 (wide)

Opening Weekend Prediction- $345,000
Total Gross Prediction- $35 million

Bad Words is a pretty funny looking comedy and I really do think that people like Jason Bateman. The film has him as a man-child who enters a spelling bee for children. The foul-mouthed protagonist teams up with a young scholar and they run around and have fun. Looks like a pretty cool movie and I think that people will take to it. Bateman's popularity has risen and the movie looks funny. It'll be a hit for sure.

NOAH- March 28

Opening Weekend Prediction- $50 million
Total Gross Prediction- $170 million

This is surely one of the most controversial films of the year so far. Noah is based on the Bible and now there are all sorts of disclaimers and everything saying that this is not an exact adaptation of the Biblical tale. I don't really get all the fuss, but the movie is getting a lot of publicity, and I think that all the coverage is going to pique the interest of a lot of people. Plus, it stars Russell Crowe and has cool special effects. This is going to be a pretty big hit if everything goes right.

CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER- April 4

Opening Weekend Prediction- $95 million
Total Gross Prediction- $210 million

Captain America and Thor were both introduced to us in 2011 and both films ended up with similar grosses ($65 million opening weekend). When Thor: The Dark World opened in late 2013, it got the so-called "Avengers Boost" and ended up opening to $85 million. Now, I would say that Captain America: The Winter Soldier will end up with around the same gross, but I just don't believe it. I think that The Winter Soldier has the possibility to make a lot more money than Thor 2 did. It has a stronger connection to The Avengers and I believe that more people will turn out for this one.

RIO 2- April 11

Opening Weekend Prediction- $30.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $115 million

The original Rio wasn't an instant classic when it came out back in 2011, but apparently the $143 million it made in the US was enough for a sequel. Rio 2 should be a sizable hit, but I don't think that it will reach the heights of the original. There's just not enough buzz around the film and the original isn't exactly a classic. Rio 2 will do good business, but it won't be a hit.

ST. VINCENT- April 11

Opening Weekend Prediction- $5.6 million
Total Gross Prediction- $15.2 million

I had never heard of this movie until now, but it actually sounds like something that I will really like. St. Vincent is the story of a young boy who befriends a bawdy, hedonistic war veteran while his parents go through a divorce. Bill Murray, Naomi Watts and Melissa McCarthy star and if The Weinstein Company pumps this movie enough, I think that it could be a big hit. For now though, I'm going low. There just isn't any public awareness for this film.

OCULUS- April 11

Opening Weekend Prediction- $11.4 million
Total Gross Prediction- $24.5 million

Oculus stars Karen Gillan and Katee Sackhoff and is about a woman trying to exonerate her brother by proving that his crime was supernaturally related. That's according to IMDb and this is another movie that I had never heard of. It's a horror movie, so it could be a hit. But I just don't think that this has much of a shot of being a big hit.

DRAFT DAY- April 11

Opening Weekend Prediction- $25 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

America loves football and maybe America will like a movie about the NFL Draft. I don't really know. Draft Day stars Kevin Costner, who is basically trying to revive his career. It didn't work with Jack Ryan, it didn't work with 3 Days to Kill, could it work with Draft Day? I don't know. This movie is a complete toss-up.

HEAVEN IS FOR REAL- April 16

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction-$55 million

Heaven is For Real is based on a best-selling book. I don't know if anyone remembers the book anymore, but that's irrelevant. I think that there are enough fans for a solid opening weekend. Plus, a lot of church groups will go see the film as well. But I just think that the movie will tap out after that. This just doesn't seem like the type of movie that will have strong word of mouth for weeks.

BEARS- April 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $8.6 million
Total Gross Prediction- $27.4 million

The Disneynature series never makes a lot of money, but the movies don't cost anything either. So no matter how much money Bears makes, it will be a success. Typically, these movies open small and have good word of mouth in the future. I'm actually interested in this one and it could end up being a small hit.

A HAUNTED HOUSE 2- April 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $13.2 million
Total Gross Prediction- $25 million

The first Haunted House movie grossed about $40 million and I really don't think that many people are clamoring for a sequel. This sequel probably was made for nothing, but I still doubt that it will make over $25 million.

TRANSCENDENCE- April 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $32 million
Total Gross Prediction- $110 million

This is a really interesting film, box office-wise. Transcendence stars Johnny Depp, Rebecca Hall, Morgan Freeman, Paul Bettany, Kate Mara and Cillian Murphy and is produced by Christopher Nolan. That seems to give it enough star power for it to be a hit. However, I'm just not too sure on this one. Wally Pfister is a first time director and this could end up being a misfire. But I'll stick to my $100 million+ prediction.

BRICK MANSIONS- April 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $4.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $11 million

Don't you love April? There are about four films off of the release schedule in April that I had actually heard of and Brick Mansions isn't one of them. This Relativity action film stars RZA and the late Paul Walker and is pretty much another generic Luc Besson thriller. It'll probably make a bit of money, but not that much.

THE QUIET ONES- April 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $11 million
Total Gross Prediction- $19 million

Another movie that I hadn't heard of until now. The Quiet Ones stars Jared Harris and Sam Clafin as scientists who try to create a poltergeist. Sounds like an interesting premise, but I seriously doubt that this film will be any good. The word of mouth will be terrible and being released the weekend before The Amazing Spider Man 2 is not going to help the film.

THE OTHER WOMAN- April 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $21.4 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

This Cameron Diaz, Leslie Mann and Kate Upton-starred romantic comedy could end up being a decent hit. However, I really doubt that it's going to make more than $50 million at the box office. None of the three leads are exactly a draw and the first trailer was really not that funny. The Other Woman will probably make some decent money, but I'm not counting on a hit with this one.

That's it for my Spring box office predictions. Come back in late May for part 1 of my summer box office predictions.

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