Sunday, April 20, 2014

Summer 2014 Box Office Predictions- Part 1

After an extremely strong winter and spring, the 2014 box office is now pacing ahead of 2013, 2011, and 2009. With huge hits like Ride Along, The LEGO Movie, Divergent and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, it's really no surprise that the business has been doing so well. And with a lot of potentially huge movies ahead, this year is far from over. With this post, I'll be making my predictions for the first part of the summer box office (May and June). There are many films that could end up being megahits, so this will be very interesting. Here we go.

THE AMAZING SPIDER MAN 2- May 2


Opening Weekend Prediction- $91.3 million
Total Gross Prediction- $250.7 million

After the lukewarm reception to the first film, I really don't see this becoming a massive hit, especially with stiff competition from Godzilla and X-Men: Days of Future Past later in the month. In addition to that, the reviews have been middling thus far and the film may just be trying to do too much. It will still be a worldwide smash, but The Amazing Spider Man 2 might have trouble getting to $250 million in the US.

NEIGHBORS- May 9


Opening Weekend Prediction- $42.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $155 million

Neighbors is going to be a huge hit in the US. The story of a prank war between a suburban family and a fraternity is absolutely hilarious and one of the most hysterical movies I've seen in a while. With a stellar supporting cast led by Zac Efron and Dave Franco, Neighbors delivers the laughs in droves. And people are going to love this movie when they finally see it. I think that this could end up being Rogen's highest grossing film yet.

LEGENDS OF OZ: DOROTHY'S RETURN- May 9


Opening Weekend Prediction- $5.4 million
Total Gross Prediction- $12 million

This movie looks absolutely awful and I seriously doubt that anyone will actually see it. However, it does star Lea Michele, Dan Aykroyd and Patrick Stewart, which could draw in some parents. Other than star power, this movie has nothing going for it. The animation looks awful and all of the jokes in the trailers fall flat. This is going to be a huge flop.

CHEF- May 9


Opening Weekend Prediction- $200,000 (limited release)
Total Gross Prediction- $9 million

Jon Favreau's Chef looks like a good movie and will probably work as counter-programming in a crowded summer. There are a lot of big-name cast members like Robert Downey Jr., Sofia Vergara, Dustin Hoffman and Scarlett Johannson and the premise looks pretty fun. Look for Chef to be a modest hit this summer. Personally, I'm looking forward to it.

GODZILLA- May 16



Opening Weekend Prediction- $93 million
Total Gross Prediction- $270 million

In the world of internet film criticism, there is probably no blockbuster that is more anticipated this summer than Godzilla. The latest incarnation of the famous Japanese monster series looks pretty spectacular with a dead serious tone and a cast that includes Bryan Cranston and David Strathairn. The buzz has been deafening and I just can't wait to see what director Gareth Edwards has cooked up here. If it's good, a total of over $250 million is almost guaranteed for Godzilla.

MILLION DOLLAR ARM- May 16


Opening Weekend Prediction- $14.2 million
Total Gross Prediction- $65 million

Million Dollar Arm is a sports movie from Disney that tells the story of an agent who goes to India to find cricket players to play baseball. That's an intriguing premise, but what's even more intriguing is that Disney's studio chief said that this movie tested better than any other film they've ever made. That's pretty great and I believe that word of mouth will be stellar. Look for this film to make solid money throughout the summer.

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST- May 23


Opening Weekend Prediction- $106 million (3-day), $127 million (4-day)
Total Gross Prediction- $325 million

Although this film is in some trouble at this point because of director Bryan Singer's sexual abuse lawsuit, the latest X-Men movie will certainly be one of the biggest hits of the summer. The epic storyline combines both the cast from X-Men: First Class and the original trilogy for a motion picture event that includes killer robots, dystopian futures and more. I can't wait for this film and I believe that audiences will be drawn to seeing all of these characters together for one movie.

BLENDED- May 23

Opening Weekend Prediction- $31 million (3-day), $40 million (4-day)
Total Gross Prediction- $97.5 million

Reuniting Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore for a comedy set in Africa sounds like a great idea on paper, but when he's not doing another Grown Ups film, Sandler hasn't exactly been dynamite at the box office. However,  Blended is a PG-13 comedy, which is rare and will likely work as counterprogramming to Days of Future Past on Memorial Day weekend. A finish just short of $100 million is likely.

MALEFICENT- May 30


Opening Weekend Prediction- $82 million
Total Gross Prediction- $240 million

Maleficent is another risky fantasy film for Disney, but this time, Angelina Jolie is the star. She hasn't done a movie in a while and will likely be the major draw for this film. In addition to that, the special effects look great and the dark tone could bring in some adults in addition to the built in family audience. Oz, The Great and Powerful opened to $79 million on its way to $234 million. Maleficent should at least match that.

A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST- May 30

Opening Weekend Prediction- $41 million
Total Gross Prediction- $120 million

Seth MacFarlane saw great success in 2012 with Ted, the raunchy R-rated comedy about a teddy bear that becomes a living creature. A Million Ways to Die in the West is a Western, which will likely be a harder sell to mainstream audiences and it's opening right between Neighbors and 22 Jump Street, both of which will be huge. However, it has a strong cast and the red band trailer makes the film seem pretty funny. A total around $120 million should be expected for this one.

THE FAULT IN OUR STARS- June 6


Opening Weekend Prediction- $51 million
Total Gross Prediction- $160 million

I'm predicting big things for this movie for many reasons. The dark cancer drama probably doesn't seem like it would fit on the summer movie schedule, but the fanbase for this book is massive and from what I can tell, they're already excited about this movie. In addition, Shailene Woodley is now a household name because of Divergent. Finally, there's literally no competition for this film throughout the whole summer. That means that The Fault in Our Stars will have all summer to do whatever it wants at the box office. If everything goes well, this is going to be a huge hit.

EDGE OF TOMORROW- June 6


Opening Weekend Prediction- $35.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $101 million

Edge of Tomorrow is a high-concept sci-fi film starring Tom Cruise. That's one negative right there. This film actually does look good, but the box office prospects aren't super high for this one. Edge of Tomorrow's success or failure will hinge on reviews and word of mouth. That's what it's going to come down to. If reviews are good, Edge of Tomorrow could be a solid hit.

22 JUMP STREET- June 13


Opening Weekend Prediction- $56.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $165 million

21 Jump Street was a massive surprise back in 2012, opening to $36.3 million on its way to nearly $140 million. With a prime summer release date, odds are that 22 Jump Street will make much more money. Tatum and Hill are much bigger stars now and the first film was well received. I think that a total around $165 million is reasonable at this point.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2

Opening Weekend Prediction- $115 million
Total Gross Prediction- $380 million

The first film in the How To Train Your Dragon franchise was a massive hit, grossing $217.5 million back in 2010. The sequel's advantage is that there is literally no other animated film coming out this Summer. The film's strongest competition is Planes: Fire and Rescue. A massive total of $300 million+ is almost guaranteed at this point.

THINK LIKE A MAN TOO- June 20

Opening Weekend Prediction- $37 million
Total Gross Prediction- $94 million

Think Like A Man was a surprise success back in 2012 and Kevin Hart's stock has grown exponentially since that first film was released. Now, the sequel is here and it should end up making more than its predecessor. The film doesn't look great but it should end up being a success. It should finish around the same mark that its predecessor did.

JERSEY BOYS- June 20


Opening Weekend Prediction- $25.6 million
Total Gross Prediction- $115 million

Jersey Boys has been a musical success for years on Broadway and now, Clint Eastwood will adapt the play to the big screen. Movie musicals have been pretty tough to crack over the years. Les Miserables was a big hit, but Rock of Ages flopped. However, the first trailer for Jersey Boys was good and with an R-rating, it's clear that Warner Bros. is going for an adult audience. I'm betting that this film ends up being a midsummer hit for the underestimated adult crowd.

TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION- June 27


Opening Weekend Prediction- $110 million
Total Gross Prediction- $300 million

The Transformers franchise isn't quite what it used to be. The fourth film in the saga that started with 2007's Transformers has a fresh new cast led by Mark Wahlberg and Nicola Peltz and what looks to be a darker tone. However, in a crowded summer, I'm not sure that Age of Extinction can quite be the hit that the previous films were. Still, this will be one of the biggest worldwide hits of the year.

Those are my predictions for May and June. It looks like there are quite a few sure things and some films that might have tough time. Come back later for my predictions for July and August (hint: there will be a lot more flops.)

1 comment:

  1. Ronald H. Witt wondering what will stand the test of time.

    ReplyDelete