Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Summer Box Office Predictions- Part 2

After what looks to be a great May and a great June, July and August arrive with more blockbuster movie fun. Some of the films in these two months look like a much riskier gamble than the films earlier in the year, but there are bound to be some breakouts as well. Here are my box office predictions for July and August:

TAMMY- July 2

Opening Weekend (5-day) Prediction- $43 million
Total Gross Prediction- $78 million

Tammy stars Melissa McCarthy, who is absolute dynamite at the box office. Last year, both of McCarthy's starring vehicles (Identity Thief and The Heat) made over $100 million, but I doubt this one will do the same. The film stars McCarthy as a woman who goes on a road trip with her profane grandmother (Susan Sarandon). With a prime July 4th release date, I see Tammy finishing with around $78 million.

EARTH TO ECHO- July 2

Opening Weekend (5-day) Prediction- $16 million
Total Gross Prediction- $35 million

This low budget family action flick was bumped to the July 4th weekend by Relativity at the last moment and I'm not sure if it was the right decision. The found-footage style family movie will face some stiff competition and I'm not sure if it will be able to thrive. However, there's enough here for me to believe that some families will tune in for this one.

DELIVER US FROM EVIL- July 2

Opening Weekend (5-day) Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

Every year, it seems like there is at least one horror breakout in the summer movie season. And with a fantastic trailer and a prime July 4th opening, Deliver Us From Evil should be that movie this summer. I'm really excited for this one and I really do think that this film will breakout at the box office.

DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES- July 11

Opening Weekend Prediction- $94 million
Total Gross Prediction- $235 million

After a strong showing with Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($176 million domestically), it's clear that this franchise is back on track. With that said, the odds are that Dawn of the Planet of the Apes will crush it at the box office. The cast is very strong (Jason Clarke, Keri Russell and Gary Oldman star) and the mid-July release date is fantastic. This will likely be one of the highest grossing films of the summer.

AND SO IT GOES- July 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $3.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $10.4 million

This looks like one of the most generic romantic comedies imaginable. Twenty years ago, this might have been a hit, but now, I just don't see crowds flocking to see Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton. Maybe it will catch on with the older folks, but I just don't see any broad appeal for this film. And the marketing is awful.

PLANES: FIRE AND RESCUE- July 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $29.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $103.2 million

The first Planes film made $90 million in the US and with less competition, there's no reason to think that the sequel will make any less. The marketing is not good and the film looks almost cringe-worthy, but there's just no way to keep kids away from these things. They love the Cars franchise and they obviously like Planes as well. The fact that Disney was able to crank out another one of these films only a year after the first one came out is impressive to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Planes 3 next summer if this one doesn't disappoint.

SEX TAPE- July 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $28.4 million
Total Gross Prediction- $86 million

The best comparison for this film is Bad Teacher, the 2011 comedy that also brought Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz on-screen together. That film ended up with around $100 million, but Sex Tape will make just a little bit less. The biggest reason that I don't see this movie being a blockbuster is that the inherent eroticism of the project will likely turn some people away. I just don't know if people really want to see this movie. It looks funny, but with a lot of R-rated comedies, people might not be ready for something that is a very hard R.

THE PURGE: ANARCHY- July 18

Opening Weekend Prediction- $29.8 million
Total Gross Prediction- $70.5 million

The first Purge film was a major success. It received terrible reviews and had awful word-of-mouth, but it ended up making a ton of money ($89 million worldwide) off of a $3 million budget. The sequel will likely do even better. While The Purge was a standard home invasion thriller, the marketing for Anarchy has sold people on the pure insanity of the film and the fact that it actually takes place on the streets of LA during the Purge. That will draw a lot of people in whether they liked the first film or not.

HERCULES- July 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $35.6 million
Total Gross Prediction- $105.5 million

Hercules is a popular hero and Dwayne Johnson is a major star but this movie just looks bad. It still might end up being a decent movie, but the marketing makes the film seem over-dramatic and way too reliant on visual effects. This will still be a modest hit, but it won't be big enough to recoup its budget.

LUCY- July 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $39 million
Total Gross Prediction- $120 million

Lucy is going to be a sleeper hit. I'm calling that right now. This movie just looks fantastic and Scarlett Johannson is the kind of actor that you need to sell a smaller, smarter film. The fact that this is more of a practical thriller compared to the typical special effects extravaganzas that we get during summer might make this a big draw as well. All in all, I'm looking forward to this movie and I believe that it will be one of the summer's biggest surprises.

THE FLUFFY MOVIE- July 25

Opening Weekend Prediction- $6.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $20 million

Last year, Kevin Hart's concert movie made $32 million. And while Gabriel Iglesias, star of The Fluffy Movie, is certainly not as big of a draw, this movie should still connect in the way that Hart's movie did. Iglesias has a lot of fans and they will certainly show up for this film. It doesn't have broad appeal, but it should do decent business.

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY- August 1

Opening Weekend Prediction- $79.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $200 million

Guardians of the Galaxy is Marvel's riskiest property in years, but it could end up paying off. It looks quirky and offbeat, but the fun factor is definitely there. The trailers have been splendid and the so-called "Avengers bump" will most certainly be in play. In addition to all that, Guardians of the Galaxy also has a lot of space to itself. There are some small blockbusters, but no other major films, so that should benefit this film, which is very weird for a summer blockbuster.

GET ON UP- August 1

Opening Weekend Prediction- $25.6 million
Total Gross Prediction- $120 million

Get On Up is perfect counter-programming to the weird thrills of Guardians of the Galaxy and should do very good throughout the month of August. The music is catchy, the trailers are good and there is no big-time competition for this film. The Help was a big hit in August 2011 (Get On Up is from the director of The Help) and I definitely see Get On Up following in the footsteps of that film.

INTO THE STORM- August 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $17 million
Total Gross Prediction- $43 million

Into the Storm is in the weird position of both looking awesome and looking like a rehash. We've definitely seen this film before, but the trailers have highlighted the dazzling special effects. However, there are no major stars and there is some stiff competition that weekend, so I just don't see Into the Storm breaking out. If it's good, there's a chance, but it's very slim.

STEP UP ALL IN- August 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $8.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $18.5 million

They're still making these things? I would have surely thought that the appeal would have worn off by now. But nonetheless, we're getting Step Up All In and it will make no money. Granted, these films cost no money and a sixth film will likely get made, but I just don't see this even coming close to its predecessor.

THE HUNDRED FOOT JOURNEY- August 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $15 million
Total Gross Prediction- $60 million

This movie is the definition of a small hit. It looks like a nice, heartwarming film and it will do decent business. The Hundred Foot Journey won't dominate on its opening weekend, but it will have solid legs throughout the month and will likely make a profit for Disney. The film is about an elderly French chef fighting with her new Indian neighbors who shake up the culinary landscape that she has dominated for years. That sounds very interesting and with the success of Chef, I wouldn't be surprised to see another culinary film succeed.

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES- August 8

Opening Weekend Prediction- $40 million
Total Gross Prediction- $115 million

The new Ninja Turtles movie is in a really tough position. The trailers have made it seem very goofy, but also incredibly intense and serious, which doesn't really appeal to anyone. Kids will be scared, but adults will probably be bored. There's just no target audience. However, the Turtles are still big and a final gross above $100 million shouldn't be a problem for this film.

LET'S BE COPS- August 13

Opening Weekend Prediction (5-day)- $23.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $45 million

This movie does not look good. It just doesn't. However, Fox seems to have confidence in this film because they're screening it really early (my screening is on July 24). I doubt that it will do big business, but there is an audience for this film that will carry it over $40 million. In addition, Jake Johnson is a rising star and will likely a draw. He's a pretty funny guy.

THE GIVER- August 15

Opening Weekend Prediction- $25 million
Total Gross Prediction- $68 million

Before you write off The Giver as just another YA adaptation, you have to have some context. The Giver is a book that has been read by millions. Almost every middle school teaches it. Kids everywhere have had exposure to it. Now, does that mean that they will turn out for the film? I don't know. Die hard fans will be there and some adults will show up as well because of the presence of Meryl Streep and Jeff Bridges.

THE EXPENDABLES 3- August 15

Opening Weekend Prediction- $36 million
Total Gross Prediction- $105 million

The big story here is that The Expendables 3 is PG-13 and will likely draw a bigger audience. Instead of grossing as much as the second film, I see this installment topping the first film just by a hair. Teens have nothing to do in the summer, so they'll just go see stuff blow up. It's that simple. I definitely think that it was a smart idea to make this movie PG-13. It'll make a boatload of cash.

SIN CITY: A DAME TO KILL FOR- August 22

Opening Weekend Prediction- $17 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

The first Sin City film made $74 million at the box office. That's a hit by most definitions. However, that film was released 10 years ago. Does anybody remember it? Or should I ask the more important question which is does anyone want to see a sequel? We'll find out, but for right now, only big-time fans will be there. It's not going to be a huge hit unless reviews are great.

IF I STAY- August 22

Opening Weekend Prediction- $11 million
Total Gross Prediction- $25 million

The Fault In Our Stars this is not. If I Stay is also based off a popular book, but this book is not nearly as popular as The Fault In Our Stars. Not even close. If I Stay will probably be more in line with Vampire Academy and Beautiful Creatures, both of which were books that nobody had heard of that still got made into movies. A final tally around $25 million seems probable.

WHEN THE GAME STANDS TALL- August 22

Opening Weekend Prediction- $14.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $47 million

This high-school football drama will likely be a huge crowd pleaser. It's an inspirational story about a group of guys overcoming a loss that ended their long win streak. What's not to like about that? It's going to be a decent end-of-summer hit and football fans will show up for it.

THE NOVEMBER MAN- August 27

Opening Weekend Prediction (5-day)- $15 million
Total Gross Prediction- $35 million

This film about a CIA operative who's on a revenge mission is being dumped into theaters at the end of August, which is traditionally reserved for films that nobody wants to see. Pierce Brosnan is the film's biggest star, so that isn't really going to save it with mainstream audiences. The November Man is going to need great reviews and a stellar marketing campaign if it wants to be a hit.

AS ABOVE, SO BELOW- August 29

Opening Weekend Prediction- $30 million
Total Gross Prediction- $59 million

When horror movies look scary, people go and see them. As Above, So Below looks scary. It's a film that takes place in the Catacombs of Paris, which may or may not be the entrance to Hell. It just looks frightening and I can definitely see a lot of people turning out to see it. The legs on it will be terrible, but the opening weekend will be huge.

JESSABELLE- August 29

Opening Weekend Prediction- $5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $10.9 million

Jessabelle is another film from producer Jason Blum, but it's facing some stiff competition. It's a horror movie and it'll be facing off against As Above, So Below which is shaping up to be a hit. I think that it'll move, but if not, it'll flop. It doesn't matter since the movie probably cost nothing, but it'll still be disappointing for Blum.

That's it for my Summer Box Office Predictions. There were plenty of indie movies that I didn't preview, but I might do a separate post for those films. But don't forget to check back for my box office posts each week and be sure to keep up with all the new films hitting theaters this summer.


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