Sunday, January 11, 2015

The Movie Guru's Golden Globe Predictions

After months of nominations, end-of-year lists and speculation, we've finally arrived at the first major awards show of the year: The Golden Globes. Typically, the Globes aren't considered the best awards show for predicting the Oscars. However, their nominations were pretty impressive this year and I think that everybody in show biz is going to be keeping an eye on what goes down at Hollywood's biggest party tonight. Can Boyhood solidify itself as the film to beat in the Best Picture race? Who's the front-runner for Best Actor- Cumberbatch or Redmayne? Can anybody stop Julianne Moore and J.K. Simmons? Is Selma a contender or pretender? Some of these questions will be answered tonight and some will have to wait until the Oscar nominations on Thursday. But either way, it will be an interesting and fun night. Here are my predictions for the Golden Globes.

BEST PICTURE- DRAMA

Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

Unless Selma pulls a big upset, I definitely see Boyhood winning this category. Richard Linklater's incredible 12-year project is universally beloved and tonight could be a major show of strength for the film. Foxcatcher and The Theory of Everything are long-shots and The Imitation Game has a better chance in other categories. It's down to Selma and Boyhood and I'm definitely giving Linklater's masterpiece the edge.

Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Boyhood

BEST PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent

Sometimes it pays to take a gamble. And that's what I'm doing with The Grand Budapest Hotel. Birdman is the heavy favorite in this category, but I'm betting on Wes Anderson's sweet little dark comedy. The film has seen a resurgence in recent weeks and went from a dark horse contender to a front-runner in no time. Budapest has momentum and I don't think that Birdman does. And we can't count out Into the Woods just yet.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

For sheer ambition and achievement, it's gotta be Richard Linklater. Although Inarritu dazzled voters with his camera tricks and cinematography, I believe that most voters will side with Linklater here for his masterful Boyhood (although I would love to see Anderson or Fincher pull an upset).

Will Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should Win: David Fincher, Gone Girl

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

This is by far the tightest category and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys win. But in my opinion, it's either going to be Cumberbatch or Redmayne. The two British actors deliver astounding performances in fairly straight biopics (Imitation Game is a far better film though) and it's a toss-up at this point. Right now, I'm going with Cumberbatch. I think that his performance is pretty dazzling and the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) loves to award big stars like Cumberbatch.

Will Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler (but Cumberbatch is great as well)

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

I would love to see Pike or Jones pull the massive upset here but it's not going to happen. Moore has this one locked up. End of story.

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

I love seeing the nominations for Inherent Vice, Grand Budapest and Big Eyes, but this category is all about Michael Keaton and Birdman. Keaton's career has seen a resurgence because of this film and it's a very good performance. He's close to a lock right now.

Will Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Should Win: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

This category narrows down to Adams and Blunt. Either one could win, but I think that the HFPA's love for Adams will come through. She delivers a superb performance in Big Eyes and I'm honestly shocked that she hasn't received more Oscar buzz for this performance. Blunt and Moore could play spoiler, but I've got Adams all the way here.

Will Win: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Should Win: Amy Adams, Big Eyes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

This one isn't even close. J.K. Simmons is going to win. He has to win. In a category filled with impressive performances (Ruffalo and Hawke are brilliant), Simmons towers over them all.

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Supporting Actress is a pretty tight race and I think that it comes down to Streep and Arquette. Streep is the acclaimed and beloved actress with a history of success with the HFPA. Arquette arguably delivers the more impressive performance. The odds are favoring Arquette and I'm betting on her as well (although I wouldn't count out Jessica Chastain yet).

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

BEST FILM SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Another very close race here with three or four nominees that could take the win. There's a lot of love for Linklater's screenplay for Boyhood, but I still think it's too simple to win the big awards. Graham Moore's Imitation Game screenplay is impressive, but relatively standard biopic fare. Flynn's work on Gone Girl is awesome, yet it seems to have lost momentum as the season rolled on. It comes down to Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Whichever film wins this award will take the rest of the Comedy/Musical awards for the rest of the night. I guarantee it. And I'm betting on The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Gone Girl

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

The LEGO Movie is the best animated film of the year and one of the best ever made. How could it not win here? It would be a major upset if anybody else won this category tonight.

Will Win: The LEGO Movie
Should Win: The LEGO Movie

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Force Majeure
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem Gett
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines

Force Majeure and Leviathan are tough competition, but Ida seems poised to win this category. It has won a bunch of the pre-cursor awards and seems like the very heavy favorite going into the Globes.

Will Win: Ida

BEST SCORE

Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

Although the absence of Jonny Greenwood's Inherent Vice score is disheartening, I'm still happy with the nominees for this category. The Theory of Everything's score did nothing for me, but I love the music in Gone Girl and Interstellar. It's a close race between Birdman and Interstellar, but I think that Zimmer's epic work will take the cake here.

Will Win: Interstellar
Should Win: Interstellar

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Annie
Big Eyes
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part 1
Noah
Selma

I never know what to do with this category, so I usually just predict the favorite. Selma is favored heavily over at Gold Derby, so I guess I'll go with that one. None of these songs (from what I've heard) were completely memorable, if I'm going to be completely honest with you.

Will Win: Selma

That's it for my predictions. Be sure to come back later tonight for my Golden Globes live blog starting at 8PM!

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