Friday, May 8, 2015

Summer Box Office Predictions- Part 2

Part 1 of my Summer Box Office Predictions were posted last month, as I took a look at what movies were on the schedule for April- June 12. There are going to be a lot of strong grosses from Avengers to Jurassic World, but there's even more in store for the latter half of the summer. Here is part 2 of my Summer Box Office Predictions:

INSIDE OUT- June 19

Opening Weekend Prediction- $68.5 million
Total Gross Prediction- $255 million

Inside Out doesn't seem like one of Pixar's more commercially viable options, but that hasn't stopped the company in the past. Plus, Inside Out has the advantage of insane momentum as buzz has been stellar so far. It looks like one of Pixar's most inventive concepts in recent years and I can see it matching up to the totals of Up and Wall-E. If Inside Out is truly one of Pixar's best films in years, it could be one of the summer's biggest breakout hits.

MAX- June 26

Opening Weekend Prediction- $21 million
Total Gross Prediction- $68 million

Max is pretty much American Sniper with a dog and it's targeting almost the exact same audience. Families will come out for it, military markets will see it and it'll take a huge share over Fourth of July weekend. Whether or not it ends up breaking out is up to the film's quality, but I can see Max holding its own among the June heavyweights.

BIG GAME- June 26 (limited)

Opening Weekend Prediction- $200,000
Total Gross Prediction- $8.6 million

If Big Game was receiving a major theatrical release, I would say that this would end up grossing closer to $80-$90 million. This looks like a goofy, fun action movie and Samuel L. Jackson is playing the President of the United States. What's not to like? However, this movie is only gonna be playing in a few theaters and that'll diminish its grosses.

TED 2- June 26

Opening Weekend Prediction- $75 million
Total Gross Prediction- $200 million

Ted 2 will have a massive opening weekend, but it won't quite match up to the original film's total. The film looks funny, but nothing all that fresh. The legs won't be that strong unless Seth MacFarlane has delivered some unforeseen masterpiece with this film. This is still going to be one of the biggest comedy hits of the summer and a major cash cow for Universal.

MAGIC MIKE XXL- July 1

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $65 million
Total Gross Prediction- $110 million

Magic Mike XXL is going to be one of the most front-loaded movies of the summer. Fans will flock into theaters on opening weekend before petering out in the later weeks. I doubt that this film will receive the kind of reviews that the original did but fans might be more enthusiastic if the film is more stripping and less story. The main complaint from female fans in the first one was that there wasn't enough stripping, so I guess they might solve that problem this time around.

TERMINATOR: GENISYS- July 1

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $85 million
Total Gross Prediction- $215 million

Terminator: Genisys has been the victim of terrible buzz, but I have a feeling that this film is going to really surprise us. The trailers have been spoiler-filled but they've given us an interesting look at what could be coming with this film. Plus, I think that audiences will be interested to see the return of Arnold Schwarzanegger and the action scenes have been terrific in the marketing so far. This movie could flop big-time, but I'm rolling the dice here and betting on Genisys.

SELF/LESS- July 10

Opening Weekend Prediction- $13 million
Total Gross Prediction- $36 million

Self/Less looks like it could be one of the hidden gems of the summer, but that doesn't mean that it's going to break out at the box office. The film, which tracks a man (Ben Kingsley)'s search for youth and the unforeseen consequences when he ends up in the body of a younger man (Ryan Reynolds), has quite the bizarre concept and that could certainly be off-putting for many moviegoers. Still, I think a decent haul and some solid word of mouth will carry this one to profitability.

THE GALLOWS- July 10

Opening Weekend Prediction- $24 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

I don't know much more about this film beyond that it's a horror film set at a theater. But what I do know is that the trailer was incredibly efficient and scary, effectively teasing the film without giving too much away. If we get another creepy teaser for the film to premiere before Insidious Chapter 3 or Poltergeist, The Gallows could be a mid-summer smash, especially with Warner Bros.' terrific marketing department behind it.

MINIONS- July 10

Opening Weekend Prediction- $110 million
Total Gross Prediction- $340 million

This spin-off of the Despicable Me franchise stars the lovable little Minions and will likely make a boatload of money. Typically I would estimate spin-off movies to make a little bit less than this, but the Minions are such popular characters that I can see this sky-rocketing past $1 billion at the worldwide box office.

ANT-MAN- July 17

Opening Weekend Prediction- $70 million
Total Gross Prediction- $190 million

Ant-Man is going to be near the lower end of the Marvel Cinematic Universe box office grosses, but it's still a Marvel movie. The studio has this amazing power to pull in audiences no matter how dumb the concept and Ant-Man will be no different. I don't think that Guardians of the Galaxy numbers are in the cards, but Ant-Man will still be one of the biggest hits of the summer frame.

TRAINWRECK- July 17

Opening Weekend Prediction- $31 million
Total Gross Prediction- $125 million

Trainwreck isn't going to be a huge opener, but when it gets going, it will be a powerhouse for Universal. This new comedy from Judd Apatow and Amy Schumer has received incredibly positive reviews so far and if it plays like Bridesmaids, it'll keep going strong throughout the rest of the summer. I don't know how marketable Schumer is, but this should do great business off of word of mouth alone.

IRRATIONAL MAN- July 17

Opening Weekend Prediction (limited)- $300,000
Total Gross Prediction- $11.5 million

Another year, another Woody Allen movie and this one looks light, fluffy, cute and beautiful to behold. So basically, it looks like a Woody Allen movie. In recent years, Allen has seemed to make one good movie and then one bad movie, basically alternating between the two. By that rule, Irrational Man will be another worthy entry in his catalog and could make a tidy profit for Sony Classics.

MR. HOLMES- July 17

Opening Weekend Prediction (limited)- $125,000
Total Gross Prediction- $8 million

Mr. Holmes is another mid-summer indie flick and with Ian McKellen in the lead role, fans could definitely turn out for this one. However, I'm not sure if general audiences will be interested in checking out a movie about a 93-year old Sherlock Holmes. But the indie fans will still show up and McKellen might even generate a bit of Oscar buzz.

SOUTHPAW- July 24

Opening Weekend Prediction- $15 million
Total Gross Prediction- $65 million

Southpaw is the latest Jake Gyllenhaal transformation movie, with him bulking up this time around to play boxer Billy Hope. As soon as the first picture was revealed, Gyllenhaal was immediately thrust into the Best Actor conversation for 2015 and there's a good chance that he'll be there by the time that the names are revealed in January. However, the trailer wasn't great and with Antoine Fuqua (The Equalizer) in the director's chair, there's reason for concern. But with The Weinstein Company behind it, Southpaw could be a later summer smash.

PAPER TOWNS- July 24

Opening Weekend Prediction- $35 million
Total Gross Prediction- $90 million

John Green adaptations burst onto the scene last year with the surprising success of The Fault In Our Stars, and now, director Jake Schreier is bringing us an adaptation of Green's Paper Towns. With some recognizable cast members and a mystery plot, Paper Towns should bring in teenage audiences, though not quite in the numbers that TFIOS did.

PIXELS- July 24

Opening Weekend Prediction- $50 million
Total Gross Prediction- $140 million

Pixels is a great concept, but so far, the marketing materials have hinted that this is going to be absolutely awful. However, when has that ever stopped Sandler's fans from showing up? Pixels could be the worst movie of all time and it would still make a boatload of money.

VACATION- July 29

Five-Day Opening Weekend Prediction- $54 million
Total Gross Prediction- $140 million

We haven't seen a trailer for this one yet, but word from CinemaCon is that this film looks fresh, funny and raunchier than anything we've seen from the Vacation series so far. The promise of a hard-R reboot of a classic franchise has worked in the past, and with several original cast members making a return for this film, I can see this being a four-quadrant, multi-generational smash hit.

THE GIFT- July 31

Opening Weekend Prediction- $10 million
Total Gross Prediction- $25 million

The Gift is the directorial debut of Joel Edgerton, is written by Edgerton and stars Edgerton, Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall. That's literally all I know about this movie. But opening against Vacation and Mission: Impossible was probably a bad idea, so I'm betting that this one taps out with $25 million.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE- ROGUE NATION- July 31

Opening Weekend Prediction- $80 million
Total Gross Prediction- $220 million

Believe it or not, this looks like one of the few surefire action blockbusters of the summer. Rogue Nation is following up Ghost Protocol, one of the most beloved action movies of the last few years. Tom Cruise is on a bit of an upswing after Edge of Tomorrow and Paramount moved it to the thick of an already competitive summer season. This has all the makings of a great movie and a big hit.

THE END OF THE TOUR- July 31

Opening Weekend Prediction (limited)- $90,000
Total Gross Prediction- $6.7 million

The story of author David Foster Wallace (played by Jason Segel) and his relationship with a journalist (Jesse Eisenberg) gained a lot of steam at Sundance, and with hot indie distributor A24 in its corner, there's no doubt in my mind that The End of the Tour has a chance at being one of the most talked about indie flicks of the summer.

RICKI AND THE FLASH- August 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $21 million
Total Gross Prediction- $70 million

Meryl Streep playing a rock star? The Oscar voters are already here. I have honestly no clue what this movie is about beyond that it has Meryl Streep and Kevin Kline and that it's directed by Silence of the Lambs filmmaker Johnathan Demme. If it's good, I can see this number going higher. But for now, my outlook for this one is moderate to say the least.

MASTERMINDS- August 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $28 million
Total Gross Prediction- $85 million

This actually looks like a really funny comedy and audiences love Zach Galifianakis and Kristen Wiig. And the fact that this is based on a true story makes it an even more interesting proposition. It's coming out at a tough time, but I can see Masterminds finding a way to take a little bit of the market share and maybe go even bigger if it's the great comedy that it has the potential to be.

FANTASTIC FOUR- August 7

Opening Weekend Prediction- $56 million
Total Gross Prediction- $145 million

I truly don't know how to feel about this one. The cast is so good (Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Bell, Kate Mara, Toby Kebbell) but man, the buzz on this one is so atrocious. The trailers look dark and moody and nobody has really jumped on board yet. Mix that in with the rumors of Josh Trank's alleged on-set behavior and this could end up being one hot mess of a film. The box office outlook is more mild. I would say a good comparison is The Wolveirne, which did mediocre business back in 2013.

THE MAN FROM U.N.C.L.E.- August 14

Opening Weekend Prediction- $32 million
Total Gross Prediction- $90 million

After Kingsman and Spy, will audiences skip The Man From U.N.C.L.E. and wait for Spectre? That's the biggest question for this slick spy movie, which appears to finally give Henry Cavill and Armie Hammer some good material to work with. Director Guy Ritchie has done some good stuff before and the trailer for this movie was absurdly entertaining. I can't wait to see it and I hope that mainstream audiences feel the same way that I do.

STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON- August 14

Opening Weekend Prediction- $55 million
Total Gross Prediction- $160 million

Not only does this film look like an intensely good time, but it has the potential to be a real box office smash. It's targeting an under-served urban audience, it's about one of the most popular rap groups of all time (with two members who are still superstars) and it's a rather timely film. Biopics get people in theaters when the subjects is right and Straight Outta Compton is my pick for the surprise hit of the summer.

HITMAN: AGENT 47- August 21

Opening Weekend Prediction- $18 million
Total Gross Prediction- $50 million

The first trailer was sufficient and actually rather impressive, but after a draining summer of blockbusters, I don't know if Agent 47 is going to bring in audiences. It looks like a better version of Hitman this time around, but Rupert Friend and Zachary Quinto aren't very big stars and the film is competing against Sinister 2, which could take away some of the audience. I want this to be good, but I don't know how big of an audience it will have.

SINISTER 2- August 21

Opening Weekend Prediction- $25 million
Total Gross Prediction- $56 million

Sinister 2 will have a bigger opening weekend than the original film, but I doubt that it will be able to grab many audience members in the long run. Ethan Hawke isn't in this one and that could take away some fans, but I feel like the first one has enough champions that this one could pull in a tidy profit.

AMERICAN ULTRA- August 21

Opening Weekend Prediction- $14 million
Total Gross Prediction- $38 million

This was a late addition to the summer slate, but with a cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Jesse Eisenberg, Topher Grace, Walton Goggins and Connie Britton, this is a title that demands attention. It feels like the kind of film that has major flop potential, but if American Ultra is good, I could totally see this breaking out into the early September frame.

That's it for my summer box office predictions. There were a few small films that I feel like I missed, but I just don't care that much. This is quite the comprehensive look at our summer slate and this could end up being the biggest summer box office of all time.

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