BEST MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight has been the front-runner all season and I see no reason why it won't win here. It's a great film, it's about journalists and it's facing some rather light competition. Sure, it'd be awesome to see Mad Max pull an upset for the ages, but that just isn't going to happen. Room and Carol have been fading in the Oscar race, and The Revenant just isn't the kind of film that will win Best Picture. Spotlight is the undeniable favorite here by a very wide margin.
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL
The Big Short
The Martian was leading the pack in this category forever, but The Big Short has been surging lately and I definitely think that it's going to be victorious here. Ridley Scott's sci-fi epic is a great film, but it's going to struggle with the fact that it's not a comedy. According to many insiders, that has already turned some voters against the film and made the support for Adam McKay's financial satire even stronger. This is the time for The Big Short to announce itself as a major contender and I think that it's going to happen.
Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: The Big Short (I love Martian, but a comedy, it is not)
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MOTION PICTURE
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
This is a very tough and competitive category, but it's going to come down to two directors who are way overdue for some awards attention- George Miller and Ridley Scott. Miller did something truly amazing with Fury Road and Scott stunned everybody in Hollywood with his deeply funny and human flick. Picking one over the other is going to be tough for most voters. Scott is the favorite right now (just barely), but I'm going with Miller. I think that the sheer directorial achievement will be too much for the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the voting body behind the Globes) to ignore.
Will Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
This is easy. Leonardo DiCaprio is beloved by the HFPA and his performance in The Revenant has been the talk of the town this season. There's no way that he doesn't win here. A win by Cranston or Fassbender would be a shocker for the ages.
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
What an incredible year for films with female leads. There's a lot of talk about the sexism of Hollywood, but this year was impressive across the board. But I think that Brie Larson takes it here. The entirety of Room rests on her shoulders and it's a stunning performance. Blanchett and Mara are great, but they rely on each other so heavily that I can't see anybody picking one over the other. Ronan is great in Brooklyn and Vikander's turn in The Danish Girl has been buzzy, but neither film has attracted as much love as Lenny Abrahamson's dark and disturbing Room.
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
The Big Short will win Best Picture, but Matt Damon is taking the Best Actor prize. Carell and Bale are both great in the financial meltdown dramedy, yet neither actor manages to be as impressive as Damon. He carries long stretches of The Martian on his own, and it's a fantastic, interactive performance that manages to be smart, emotional and funny. Pacino and Ruffalo are also-rans. This is Damon's to lose.
Will Win: Matt Damon, The Martian
Should Win: Matt Damon, The Martian
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
This race comes down to Lawrence vs. Schumer, and I think that there's a very good chance that Amy Schumer takes the win for her funny performance in the breakout hit Trainwreck. The film was a smash back in July, and Lawrence has received more than enough love from the Globes over the last few years. With a rather light year for comedies, Schumer should have no problem winning here.
Will Win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
The supporting categories have been a mess for this entire year. No actor has emerged as a clear front-runner and I won't be surprised by any actor that gets a nomination from the Academy next week. That being said, I think that Sylvester Stallone is starting to emerge as a favorite more and more each day, and with the Globes' tendency to award big movie stars, there's very little question in my mind that they'll give the award to Stallone for his profoundly moving performance. Outside chance for Rylance's subtle turn and Dano's phenomenal performance as Brian Wilson.
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Another really tight race between Jennifer Jason Leigh and Alicia Vikander, and one that I can honestly see going either way. Vikander is quietly terrifying in Alex Garland's sci-fi flick, but Jason Leigh is a scene-stealer in Tarantino's violent masterwork. This is a true toss-up in every sense of the word, but I'm going with Jason Leigh here.
Will Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Emma Donoghue, Room
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
This will be the first time that Spotlight and The Big Short will have to face off against one another and it's going to be very interesting. Whichever film wins this race will emerge as the big winner of the night in my eyes. And despite the momentum of The Big Short, I think that Spotlight takes the cake here.
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Steve Jobs
BEST MOTION PICTURE- ANIMATED
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Inside Out should win this one with very little trouble. It's one of the best films of the year, and despite the love for Anomalisa, it should definitely take the prize here.
Will Win: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Brand New Testament
Son of Saul
I honestly haven't heard of any of the films on this list beyond Laszlo Nemes' Son of Saul. It has been the favorite since Cannes, and it's going to win again here.
Will Win: Son of Saul
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carter Burwell, Carol
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs
Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto, The Revenant
Carol and Steve Jobs have great scores, but I don't think it's even a contest here. Ennio Morricone is one of the greatest composers of all time and his score for The Hateful Eight is tense and terrific. He's going to win.
Will Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Fifty Shades of Grey
Love & Mercy
There is some support for Love & Mercy to win here, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's "See You Again" was catchy and tragic and one of the biggest hits of the year. It should win easily here.
Will Win: Furious 7
That is all for my Golden Globes Predictions. Come back tonight for the live blog!