Sunday, January 10, 2016

The Movie Guru's Golden Globes Predictions

The awards season has been chugging along for a while now, but the Golden Globes is always the first big show that gets people in Hollywood excited. And with this year's race being exceptionally close and wild, this show is more important than ever. Many questions will hopefully be answered tonight in the most booze-filled awards show in the town. Is Spotlight the movie to beat? Is this finally Leonardo DiCaprio's year? Does Mad Max have a shot? Can The Big Short play spoiler? And who is the front-runner in those crazy supporting categories? With all that said, here are my predictions for tonight's show.

BEST MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Spotlight has been the front-runner all season and I see no reason why it won't win here. It's a great film, it's about journalists and it's facing some rather light competition. Sure, it'd be awesome to see Mad Max pull an upset for the ages, but that just isn't going to happen. Room and Carol have been fading in the Oscar race, and The Revenant just isn't the kind of film that will win Best Picture. Spotlight is the undeniable favorite here by a very wide margin.

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

The Martian was leading the pack in this category forever, but The Big Short has been surging lately and I definitely think that it's going to be victorious here. Ridley Scott's sci-fi epic is a great film, but it's going to struggle with the fact that it's not a comedy. According to many insiders, that has already turned some voters against the film and made the support for Adam McKay's financial satire even stronger. This is the time for The Big Short to announce itself as a major contender and I think that it's going to happen.

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: The Big Short (I love Martian, but a comedy, it is not)

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MOTION PICTURE

Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

This is a very tough and competitive category, but it's going to come down to two directors who are way overdue for some awards attention- George Miller and Ridley Scott. Miller did something truly amazing with Fury Road and Scott stunned everybody in Hollywood with his deeply funny and human flick. Picking one over the other is going to be tough for most voters. Scott is the favorite right now (just barely), but I'm going with Miller. I think that the sheer directorial achievement will be too much for the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the voting body behind the Globes) to ignore.

Will Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion

This is easy. Leonardo DiCaprio is beloved by the HFPA and his performance in The Revenant has been the talk of the town this season. There's no way that he doesn't win here. A win by Cranston or Fassbender would be a shocker for the ages.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

What an incredible year for films with female leads. There's a lot of talk about the sexism of Hollywood, but this year was impressive across the board. But I think that Brie Larson takes it here. The entirety of Room rests on her shoulders and it's a stunning performance. Blanchett and Mara are great, but they rely on each other so heavily that I can't see anybody picking one over the other. Ronan is great in Brooklyn and Vikander's turn in The Danish Girl has been buzzy, but neither film has attracted as much love as Lenny Abrahamson's dark and disturbing Room.

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear

The Big Short will win Best Picture, but Matt Damon is taking the Best Actor prize. Carell and Bale are both great in the financial meltdown dramedy, yet neither actor manages to be as impressive as Damon. He carries long stretches of The Martian on his own, and it's a fantastic, interactive performance that manages to be smart, emotional and funny. Pacino and Ruffalo are also-rans. This is Damon's to lose.

Will Win: Matt Damon, The Martian
Should Win: Matt Damon, The Martian

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

This race comes down to Lawrence vs. Schumer, and I think that there's a very good chance that Amy Schumer takes the win for her funny performance in the breakout hit Trainwreck. The film was a smash back in July, and Lawrence has received more than enough love from the Globes over the last few years. With a rather light year for comedies, Schumer should have no problem winning here.

Will Win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

The supporting categories have been a mess for this entire year. No actor has emerged as a clear front-runner and I won't be surprised by any actor that gets a nomination from the Academy next week. That being said, I think that Sylvester Stallone is starting to emerge as a favorite more and more each day, and with the Globes' tendency to award big movie stars, there's very little question in my mind that they'll give the award to Stallone for his profoundly moving performance. Outside chance for Rylance's subtle turn and Dano's phenomenal performance as Brian Wilson.

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Another really tight race between Jennifer Jason Leigh and Alicia Vikander, and one that I can honestly see going either way. Vikander is quietly terrifying in Alex Garland's sci-fi flick, but Jason Leigh is a scene-stealer in Tarantino's violent masterwork. This is a true toss-up in every sense of the word, but I'm going with Jason Leigh here.

Will Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

BEST SCREENPLAY

Emma Donoghue, Room
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

This will be the first time that Spotlight and The Big Short will have to face off against one another and it's going to be very interesting. Whichever film wins this race will emerge as the big winner of the night in my eyes. And despite the momentum of The Big Short, I think that Spotlight takes the cake here.

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Steve Jobs

BEST MOTION PICTURE- ANIMATED

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Inside Out should win this one with very little trouble. It's one of the best films of the year, and despite the love for Anomalisa, it should definitely take the prize here.

Will Win: Inside Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Brand New Testament
The Club
The Fencer
Mustang
Son of Saul

I honestly haven't heard of any of the films on this list beyond Laszlo Nemes' Son of Saul. It has been the favorite since Cannes, and it's going to win again here.

Will Win: Son of Saul

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Carter Burwell, Carol
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs
Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto, The Revenant

Carol and Steve Jobs have great scores, but I don't think it's even a contest here. Ennio Morricone is one of the greatest composers of all time and his score for The Hateful Eight is tense and terrific. He's going to win.

Will Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Fifty Shades of Grey
Furious 7
Love & Mercy
Spectre
Youth

There is some support for Love & Mercy to win here, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's "See You Again" was catchy and tragic and one of the biggest hits of the year. It should win easily here.

Will Win: Furious 7

That is all for my Golden Globes Predictions. Come back tonight for the live blog!

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