Friday, January 6, 2017

Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes are fun. Sure, the awards race gets exhausting after a while, and I often find myself wishing that it was over by the time the Oscars actually roll around. But the Golden Globes, Hollywood's biggest party, come at a perfect moment. It's a new year, which means everybody's in a pretty good mood, but most importantly, it comes at a time when the awards season still feels fresh. It's a funky, star-studded show that feels like a kick-off event, and it's always a good time for the celebrities. This year, it may be a more predictable show than usual. I'm expecting big nights for La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, but there still could be some surprises. Here are my predictions for the Golden Globes!

Best Motion Picture- Drama


Image courtesy of Roadside Attractions

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Moonlight

If you had asked me this a few weeks ago, I probably would have gone with Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, the most widely acclaimed film of the year and a favorite of many audience members. But in recent days, the momentum has shifted to Kenneth Lonergan's heartbreaking Manchester by the Sea. The odds on Gold Derby are actually strongly in the favor of Moonlight at the moment, but I'm feeling a bit of a paradigm shift in the race. I could be wrong (and I would certainly be happy if A24's indie masterpiece won), but I'm going big with a Manchester win. The other three are clearly also-rans.

Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land

This is obvious- La La Land is going to win this category. The first original big screen musical in a category created specifically for musicals? Yeah, a victory for Damien Chazelle's film is a no-brainer.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama


Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight

Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Should Win: Amy Adams, Arrival

Will the Hollywood Foreign Press show some love for Isabelle Huppert, who has been a European superstar for decades? Or will they award the Best Actress trophy to Natalie Portman for her shattering, mesmerizing performance as Jackie Kennedy? I'm going with the latter, and I think that this will firmly shape the Oscar race as Portman vs. La La Land's Emma Stone. Amy Adams gives the best performance in this category and Huppert could spoil, but Portman goes home with the Globe.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama


Image courtesy of Roadside Attractions

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

There was a brief moment when some thought that Denzel Washington had a shot to take the race by storm and defeat Casey Affleck. But that moment has come and gone- this is clearly Affleck's year, and he'll take home another award for his devastating portrait of a man consumed by years of grief.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land

Emma Stone should have an easy time at the Globes- but don't worry, La La Land naysayers, her time for a close competition will come further down the line. Stone is the only viable Oscar contender in this category, and as much as Hollywood loves Streep and Bening, the young actress will win for her excellent, show-stopping performance in one of the most beloved films of the year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Will Win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land

With the recent development of a Writers Guild Award nomination for Deadpool, the R-rated superhero extravaganza, could we see Ryan Reynolds take home a Golden Globe award for his performance as the foul-mouthed, fast-talking anti-hero? It's certainly possible. I'm not ready to believe that just yet, and as much as the Globes love musicals, it's hard to imagine that Ryan Gosling won't win the award for his terrific performance alongside Emma Stone in La La Land. Gosling is the odds-on favorite, but we can't underestimate the Merc with a Mouth.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture


Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences

I feel like every race at the Golden Globes is kinda boring. Very few are competitive, and barring some big surprises, it's going to be an incredibly predictable show. So with that said, Viola Davis is taking home the Globe. Sure, Michelle Williams could play spoiler, but Davis is beyond excellent in Fences. She deserves the Globe.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture


Image courtesy of A24

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

For a while, there was the potential for the Supporting Actor to turn into an unpredictable, wild race. There were so many possible contenders, and at the moment, there was no clear front-runner. But during the early rounds of the awards season, Mahershala Ali emerged as the favorite with a near-sweep of the circuit. There were some odd nominees in this category, but nobody is stopping Ali. He's the best of this group, and he'll get the win.

Best Director- Motion Picture


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

This has the potential to be an interesting race as we move closer to the Oscars, as Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins have been going back and forth since the start of the awards season. But at the Golden Globes, I can't see anybody but Chazelle winning this award. For the sole reason of resurrecting the original big screen musical from the dead, the young filmmaker will win the Best Director award at Sunday's show.

Best Screenplay- Motion Picture


Image courtesy of Roadside Attractions

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

This is a close race between Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea and Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, two very strong scripts. But while I'm a bigger fan of the work done by Jenkins and the team behind the striking coming-of-age film, Manchester certainly has the momentum in the script department. I'm also not ruling out the possibility of Tom Ford playing spoiler considering the amount of love Nocturnal Animals reportedly has in the HFPA, but I think this one goes to Lonergan.

Best Motion Picture- Animated


Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Moana

The animated race this year is going to be extremely close, and although I personally adore Moana, I feel like the general consensus is that we're down to Kubo and Zootopia. The former is a lush, gorgeously designed piece of art, and the latter is a smart, topical, and funny comedy with a surprisingly poignant message. It won't be easy, but Zootopia gets the win.

Best Motion Picture- Foreign Language



Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Should Win: Toni Erdmann

There's a good chance that Elle, Paul Verhoeven's vicious, insightful character study, takes home the trophy in this category. It has the buzz, and star Isabelle Huppert is nominated in the Best Actress category. But it's a tough watch, so I'm putting my money on a victory for Toni Erdmann, the hilarious German comedy that took Cannes by storm earlier this year. It's a long film, but rich, rewarding, and endlessly likable. Seems like a winner to me.

Best Original Score- Motion Picture


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Johann Johannsson, Arrival
Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka, Lion
Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, and Benjamin Wallfisch, Hidden Figures

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Should Win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land

Not only does La La Land have some of the most wonderful songs of the year, it also has the best instrumental score of the year. And it's not even close. Justin Hurwitz wins with ease.

Best Original Song- Motion Picture


Image courtesy of Lionsgate

"Gold" from Gold
"City of Stars" from La La Land
"How Far I'll Go" from Moana
"Faith" from Sing
"Can't Stop the Feeling" from Trolls

Will Win: "City of Stars" from La La Land
Should Win: "City of Stars" from La La Land

"City of Stars" isn't even close to being the best song from La La Land, but it's still gonna win here in a landslide. No other song stands a chance.

Those are my predictions for this year's Golden Globes awards. Come back during the show to catch my reaction to the big moments, and I'm positive that I'll have some kind of recap on Monday. Not sure if I'll be live-blogging, but I'll do something. Enjoy Hollywood's craziest night.

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